Thursday, September 04, 2008

You're My Trust-Fund Baby, Baby!

From the SF Chronicle: Rights groups faults Wachovia's mortgage aid.

Susan Fallis, a communications professor at Saint Mary's College in Moraga, so far seems to fall into the "get the loans off the books" camp of Wachovia customers. In 2004, she sold the Santa Cruz parking lot her father bought in the 1960s for his mobile home business. She reinvested the approximately $3 million into 20 single-family houses in and around Reno, with a 40 percent down payment on each one.

Sixteen of the loans were Pick-a-Payment mortgages from Wachovia. Because Reno rents dropped as her minimum payments climbed, she is now losing about $7,000 per month. She has asked Wachovia to temporarily lower the interest rate on her loans by less than two percentage points, without asking for any adjustment on the loan principal. The change would enable her to break even, but company representatives have told her allowing it "would require a complete reversal in corporate policy," she said.

If Wachovia doesn't allow any modifications, Fallis expects she will have no choice but to default in the next few months. She said everyone loses in that scenario.


Not everyone, baby! Just you, and your $3M, and your dreams of real-estate riches.

Coffee is for Closers!!!

From The Sun in the Inland Empire: Price wars in N. Fontana.

Price wars are being waged in north Fontana's upper middle-class neighborhoods as home builders drop prices, hoping to stave off multimilion-dollar losses.

They're competing against one another, but collectively, their products are going up against bank-owned properties, foreclosures and short sales on homes that were built just two or three years ago around the corner.

Jeff Hill knows all about it. Owner of Dana Point-based J. Hill and Associates, the real estate broker has about 20 short sales that aren't moving because banks and sellers are desperately trying to salvage any value they can.

One of them, a 2,572-square-foot home, lies a half-mile away from the Centex tract and is on the market for about $315,000.

"They've postponed the sale four times," Hill said about the sellers. "We have an offer, and then they go out and do their own appraisal ... and by the time they come back, the buyer finds something else. Meanwhile, the values decline even further."

Sellers should be happy with buyers' offers, Hill feels.

"Everyone saves a lot more money that way, including the lender that's foreclosing," he said. "Buyers walk away when sellers try to counter the offer."


If you're happy and you know it, walk away (clap clap)
If you're happy and you know it, walk away (clap clap)
If you're happy and you know it, 'n the realtor's is shee-it
If you're happy and you know it, walk away (clap clap)

Saturday, August 30, 2008

"Real" GDP

From the BEA website: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND CORPORATE PROFITS: Second Quarter 2008.

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of 2008.

Domestic profits of financial corporations increased $24.7 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $37.3 billion in the first.


Are you fuckin' kiddin' me?

Financial companies had NO true profits in either Q1 or Q2. In fact, they were busy taking writedown after writedown marking down even past profits as fake.

Guess someone forgot to tell the government statisticians.

BWAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Sunday, August 24, 2008

How to Lie Academic-style

From CNN Money via Yahoo!: Job Boom Could Be Coming Soon.

There is no denying that the job market is weak.

The Department of Labor has reported that 432,000 people filed for unemployment benefits in the past week - making this the fifth straight week that jobless claims topped the 400,000 mark.

And so far this year, there has been a loss of 463,000 jobs.

Yet, some are starting to see light at the end of the tunnel on the job front. Economists at the University of Michigan said in a report released yesterday that 900,000 jobs will be added next year and that 2.6 million more will be created in 2010.

"To get this sort of recovery, you'll have to have a turnaround in housing. So you'll have to see a pickup in construction jobs. We could also get a pickup in vehicle manufacturing with the shift to smaller cars," she said.


Does anybody believe this?

We've had the biggest housing bubble in history, a financial bubble that dates back to 1983, and a credit bubble that has infested every single asset class worldwide.

The US "consumer" has no more access to credit. It's put-up-or-shut-up time.

We are just about to enter what is likely to be the most deep recession since the Great Depression. There are 18.4 million houses that are currently unsold and unoccupied in the US, and these people are betting on a turnaround in housing?

Jeez, even Chicago Cubs fans are not so retarded.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

The `Preserves' are in a Pickle!

From The Washington Independent: Fraud Worsens Foreclosure Crisis.

At The Barber's Chair, in the small, quiet community of Accokeek at the far end of Prince George's County, Md., the talk often turns to the foreclosure crisis -- for good reason. Here, in the nation's most affluent majority black jurisdiction, a remarkable example of the growing wealth of the new black middle class, foreclosures are growing at one of the fastest rates in the country, and foreclosure fraud is increasing right along with it.

With locals constantly in and out, Leo Harrington, the owner, hears it all. How people who bought homes once valued at $800,000 down the the road at upscale subdivisions like The Preserves or at the one- and two-acre homesites of St. James have friends and relatives living in their basements to help pay the mortgage.


Aah, the Joys of Home Pawn-ership™!

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Cannibal Sector

From the New York Times via Yahoo!: Hungry at 30,000 Feet? Pay Up.

The announcement from US Airways in June that it was going to start charging coach passengers $2 for soft drinks and bottled water — water! — on all its domestic flights, as well as $1 for coffee or tea, is only the latest sign that when it comes to flying these days, there increasingly is no such thing as a free lunch.

Well, the article goes on for a bit, and it's a bloody bore of an article so the EE will give you the precis version.

(On a side note, they used to teach the EE how to write precis versions in English class. Guess the journalists never attended an English class nor learnt how to put stuff in "tabular" format.)

Here's the precis:

All airlines are charging, and prices are retardedly high.
Whoop-dee-doodle-doo!

Who didn't see that one coming? Raise your hands now. C'mon, c'mon, don't be shy.

This is news?!?

Anyway, for those prices, you could easily get a gourmet meal from Dean & Deluca "to go" and a half-bottle of wine (like Hannibal Lecter.)

Just to be really clear for those not in the "know" of New York stores, this is the store that the snooty matrons of Park Ave. hit when they want something "catered".

So crap airline food is being priced as pricier than the gourmé-ist of gourmet foods?!?

Looks like a "cannibalistic" death spiral to me.

India Rising

From the Washington Post: Indians Trapped by Debt as Easy Money Dries Up.

In the past two months, Ravinder Raina tossed and turned on many sleepless nights trying to re-do the math of his family's monthly expenses.

Rising mortgage payments, soaring inflation and fuel prices were beginning to put the squeeze on the spending spree he'd taken for granted for the past four years. So after painstaking discussions with his wife, he drew up a list of expenses to cut. The family would stop buying famous-brand clothes. They would not window-shop if they did not need anything. They would use credit cards less and replace their gasoline-fueled car with a vehicle that uses cheaper natural gas.

The past four years have brought India economic growth of seemingly unstoppable momentum, often 9 percent a year, helped along by big inflows of foreign investment. Rising incomes and low interest rates enabled many middle-class Indians to realize the dream of owning a home, even while still in their 30s.

Trapped in debt, many middle-class Indians are struggling to cope. Raina's monthly mortgage payment has gone up by 12 percent. "I have to cut corners now, or I may not be able to pay back my loan before retirement," he said. Payments on some loans have doubled since 2004, when interest rates were at a record low.

"The boom of the last four years mesmerized them to live beyond their means," said Deepak Raheja, a therapist who runs a support group called the Hope Foundation. "In the past ten weeks, I am getting five to six new patients every week with financial worries about mortgages, loan repayments and credit card bills. All in the age group of 25 to 40. They exhibit anxiety, helplessness and depression. Some even contemplate suicide."

"The Indian middle class is now deferring purchase decisions because they are locked in the rising mortgage trap from multiple loans. They did not anticipate this cash crunch. They thought India's growth story would only go up, up and up," Bijoor said.


Gee, where have we heard that "up, up, up" before?

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Prices don't drop except when they Drop

From the Ventura Star: Positive signs are seen in housing.

Prices don't appear to be falling as rapidly as they were, sales are rising, and default notices appear to be leveling off, said Mark Schniepp, executive director of the California Economic Forecast Project in Goleta.

If notices of default fall now, then foreclosures will peak and then start to decline in December, Schniepp said. Though he does not believe prices will drop much more, he predicts more year-over-year price declines.


So prices "won't drop" but he predicts more "price declines"?

My brain hurts.

Prices won't drop but they will decline. Should we bring in a buncha English majors to analyze this one?

Post-modernism, eat your heart out.

Derrida, Deleuze, Guattari, where the fuck are you?

C'mon Baudrillard, is this is a "simulacra" of reality, or a "simulation" of reality, or is this "reality", or is this reality?

Let's get a debate going, bee-yatches, about the difference between a "price drop" and a "price decline".

BWAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Getting Non-Insurably Banged (Jiggly-Jiggly)

From The Bakersfield Californian: Building halted at two City in the Hills tracts.

Construction at two neighborhoods in northeast Bakersfield’s City in the Hills development has been halted by one of the builders there, K. Hovnanian Homes, a company official said.

Rosemary Arbor and Lantana’s Edge are on hold, said Joseph Manisco, vice president and chief legal officer at the company’s Southern California regional office in Ontario.

Manisco said the tracts weren’t profitable.

Corina Hilton, meanwhile, said on top of everything else, her home took more than a year to get built — she bought it almost two years ago, paying much more than units now go for — and has had numerous problems since she moved in at the end of last year.

“I got screwed,” Hilton said.


BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Monday, August 18, 2008

Financial Quote of the Day

Kicking a California Realtor™ in the tits is a "deflationary" event these days.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Goring Sacred Bulls

Heaven knows the EE is not Hemingway's biggest fan but this quote from Esquire, 1935 is quite apposite:

The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Quick Quiz on Investments

If you only had $1,000 to "invest", what would you do?

(Let's assume you have emergency funds and all that jazz, but you only have an extra $1,000 to invest.)

Remember the goal? You need to maximize ROI (return on investment.)

The answer will probably surprise you.

(Hint: What happens if only had $500 or even $250?)

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Hilarious

Awesomely funny.

(Source: Cassandra Does Tokyo.)

ACME Systematic Leveraged Macro Momentum Fund LP
321 Overprice Street
Greenwich, CT
00573

Dear Investor,

This letter is to inform you that the wheels have come off of the proverbial wagon at ACME Systematic Leveraged Macro Momentum Fund LP, and that the same awesome thematic portfolio that made you feel (in the first half-year) as if you'd become very rich in comparison to those sucking wind on their leveraged MBS portfolios or Japanese Small-Cap Value Funds, has, quite literally, spontaneously combusted in our faces.

Our long-oil (PBR, SU, SWN), long coal (MEE, BTU), long fertilizer (POT, MOS), and long iron ore (CLF, RIO) positions have been crushed (no pun intended), and though we remain hopeful going forward as the story remains "in tact", our models have forced us to sell some in response to prevailing price action. Our offsetting shorts in selected financials (MS, BLK, GS, and LM) have not fared as we expected, while our core retail and consumer discretionary shorts in AZO & URBN, DECK have quite literally been lodged deeply and inexplicably in an unmentionable orifice.

If that were all we'd not be too sullen, all things considered, but unfortunately our short US dollar positions (vs. everything), our JPYNZD & CHFAUD carry trades have also not performed to forecasted expectations, and both our our long-only, and zero-exposure long vs. short commodity baskets have imploded with a rapidity that would even frighten Taleb to vows of silence. Oh, and if that weren't enough, our gold and silver longs, too, have gone south as if trying to re-embed themselves in the ground, whilst the short Russell-2000 ETFs we've been using as a hedge have been behaving all-too priapically. These losses of course are not as bad - relatively speaking - as some of our peers (who regretfully are no longer in business) and should of course be viewed in the proper context of our delft avoidance of long exposure in the worst of the RMBS and CMBS sectors, our eschewing of becoming a CDO issuer/manager, and our resolve to avoid anything denominated in Icelandic Kronor. Unfortunately we still have a large (leveraged) position in high-yielding cov-lite loans, US sub-prime credit-card-backed receivables for which we remain unable to obtain sensible bids at levels near to where our auditors and administrators agreed that we should pay our prior year's incentive fees. Only our long Japanese REIT portfolio and our unlisted fund of Spanish Olive Groves have held their ground, though regretfully we refrained from hedging the currency risk, and so these too, are now in the red and eroding rapidly.

We have no explanation, since our trades are systematically based upon doing what others are doing (only, hopefully, faster... though, in this instance, not fast enough). Nor do we offer you apologies. You [presumably] knew the risks, and felt the glory (if only for a while). We do lament the the now-sky-high high-water mark, and the absence of performance fees (this year).

Finally, saving the best for last, we will be suspending redemptions as per the Force Majeureclause 6(c)-2 of the Private Placement Information Memorandum of the Fund. We trust you'll agree that only something supernatural could have torpedoed such a finely constructed portfolio put together by the best and the brightest Wall St. has to offer.

Yours sincerely,

Hugh G. Fallis - Managing Partner
ACME Systematic Leveraged Macro Momentum Fund LP

Saturday, August 09, 2008

Uncontroversial Advice

Well, the email lines seem to be clogged. O Great EE, or O Asshole EE, now that you have already predicted what's coming down the poop-chute, what shall we do?

Insert hand-wringing. Cue Edith Wharton.

So in the great spirit of decency (rare for the EE), here's some non-controversial advice about the credit upheaval and the upcoming depression.

If you have a gift card to any store, blow the money NOW!

That store may or may not last. Chances are it won't. Will they last through the New Year? Unless, you can read a balance sheet, who the fuck knows? And even then, given their exposure to "derivatives", all bets are off.

Blow 100% of all of your gift cards right now, and don't look back.

This is about as uncontroversial as any advice about finance gets. It's pretty bleedin' obvious.

Also, don't hand out any gift cards. That's pretty fuckin' obvious too.

Friday, August 08, 2008

USA or Rural China?

From the Merced Star: Living in limbo: Tenants feeling the mortgage mess.

Brandy Menina's apartment hasn't had hot water for six weeks.

When she and her three teenage daughters want to bathe and wash their long hair, she fills up four pots and two roasting pans with water and heats them on the stove.

Sounds like the kind of problem she should complain to her landlord about. But Menina doesn't enjoy a typical landlord-tenant situation. The apartment building she lives in is in foreclosure.

Now a bank owns it, and it's hired a real estate company to sell the building. They want her out so they can sell it. Menina says she'll leave when she can -- legally, she's entitled to stay for at least another month.

In the meantime, she's waging a battle to get her hot water turned back on.


Welcome to the First World™!

Thursday, August 07, 2008

The Realtard™ Chronicles

From USA Today: Realtors live close to the edge.

Jack Jentzen never saw it coming. Four years ago, as a real estate agent in Elgin, Ill., he was enjoying the rewards of the most frenzied U.S. housing market in decades, and money poured in.

Now he's fighting to keep his home.

"I'm looking at jobs that are way lower than what I was once making," says Jentzen, 43.

As his business started to wither away, so did his financial security. He took out an equity line on his house. He exhausted most of his savings. The value of his home plummeted, and his lender cut off his equity line. Credit card bills climbed.

"The money in the bank is going to run out. If we lose this house, what do we do? What does my daughter do? My dad? I felt depressed and saw a psychologist. The market's just so tough now."

Shirley Van Scoyk, a Realtor in West Chester, Pa., spends her days on her farm with the horses she boards and her 80-pound American bulldog puppy. It might sound idyllic, but days with no work feel agonizing to her. At the moment, she has only one listing — her son's house. It's been on the market for three months.

"The hardest thing, where it all starts to unravel, is the effect of the difficult market on my self-esteem," Van Scoyk says.

When home sales were booming, she reveled in snagging sales and closing deals, and then snacking on crackers and soda in her car on the way to a settlement she'd struggled to move to the table.

"When the market is challenging like this, all the drama is gone, the hunt is gone, and this eats at your soul," she says. "I love doing business, and there is less business to do. I am in mourning for my work life. … I worked hard to get to be a Realtor. It made me a professional and a success. That bothers me worse than the income loss. I'm so incredibly depressed by not having work."

Robert Millosh, a Realtor for Re/Max in Middlesex County, N.J., says he'll need to find some other job to stay in the area. He used to earn at least $30,000 annually as a Realtor. Right now, he says, home sales are so dismal that he's looking at a job change or a move to Florida or Pennsylvania.

"I am almost broke and struggling to get by from day to day," says Millosh, who is 45 and single. "I'm having an estate sale for most of the furniture I have that I don't need. My life has been ripped apart."

Milltown, N.J., is a quaint small town, the kind of place families want to move to. They have an all-American Fourth of July celebration, with a parade, fishing, rodeo, a band in the park and fireworks at night. Millosh says it would be a hard place to abandon, but he might not have a choice.

He says he got in over his head after he began caring for his mother. His house was valued at $411,000 last year when he refinanced, and this year houses in his neighborhood were selling for less than $300,000. He's trying to sell his home for $349,000. His grandmother and mother built the house in 1951 for $18,000, and Millosh took out a mortgage in 2004 when his mother began to have medical problems. The original mortgage was for $100,000.

Now, he is looking at renting out rooms. Renting out his entire house or selling it, he says, could leave him homeless.

He took a bartending class in hopes of getting a job but says he could find only jobs as a busboy. "I've been looking for a job since October of last year and have yet to find anything," Millosh says. "I apply for anything, as long as it meets my minimum salary and travel area. I figured real estate would always be there for me."


Let me remind readers again that these are "used house" salesmen. They have no particular skills. The best job one could find was as a busboy.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Sunday, August 03, 2008

Crazy Math

From CNN: Foreclosures linked to subprime fraud.

Mortgage scammers took advantage of loopholes in New York State lending laws to defraud homeowners and lending institutions all over the state, according to a new report released Thursday.

In one example from 2006, Suzette Francis, a woman with two young children, no assets, working as a $10-an-hour security guard and living in a homeless shelter, obtained a mortgage for $470,000 that, as the report stated, "exhibited...every characteristic and feature associated with dangerous subprime loans."

Francis had down payment and no proven income or assets. Her adjustable rate mortgage started at 10.8% and was capped at 16.85%. At that rate, even her initial monthly payment came to more than $4,400. She would have to work 400 hours a month just to pay her loan.


And yet there are only 168 hours in a "traditional" week!

Saturday, August 02, 2008

The Goobernator Tries to Collect Rent

From Delaware Online: Landlord crashes Hummer into tenants' home.

A landlord who was apparently upset at his tenants because they were behind on their rent crashed his Hummer into their home – his property – and then attempted to kick the door down, according to police.

Yeah, that'll really show who's boss. Crashing a hummer into your own home.

You really showed them, dude, you really showed them.

Thursday, July 31, 2008

Shameless

From the Boston Globe: Mass. foreclosure cases plummet.

The drop is attributed to a state law that took effect May 1 giving struggling homeowners a bit of breathing room. The so-called right-to-cure law created a 90-day period in which homeowners can "cure" mortgage delinquencies by catching up on payments or finding a buyer.

There were just 350 new cases brought by lenders against delinquent homeowners last month, compared with 2,308 in June 2007.

The number of foreclosure proceedings initiated in Massachusetts plummeted in June, a sign that a new state law delaying property takings is working.


Yeah, right. It's really working.

This is just so fuckin' shameless it's hard to endure.

Yeah, sure, report on the 89th day that things are great after a law puts a temporary moratarium for 90 days. How much more mendacious and shameless can you get, motherfuckers?

What's missing in the detail is that this the 27th straight month of Y-o-Y (year-on-year) declines for the Boston area?

Let's rephrase that again.

Prices have dropped 27 straight months in a row.

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Californication

From the Los Altos Town Crier: National home sales down, locally – up.

The average price of homes in June was $922,149, down from $970,702 in May.

The headline is absurd. They're trying to catch greater fools.

Besides, the EE is well aware that people have trouble conceptualizing large numbers like $900K.

Let's revisit the numbers again:

Drop = $970,702 - $922,149 = $48,553.

Number of days in June = 30.

Drop each day = $1,618.

That's a fuckload of money to be losing each bright summery California day in June, innit?!?

Sheeple Shearing

From Yahoo!: The Hidden Tax Traps in the Housing-Rescue Bill.

First, we have a $7,500 credit for new homeowners that's not really a credit. It's a loan. Those who qualify to receive this credit will receive 10% of the purchase price of their home -- up to $7,500, in the first year. Then they will repay the loan over a 15-year period, starting in the second year after the taxable year in which the house is purchased.

So it's not a tax-credit after all. It's just an interest-free loan that you have to pay back for the next 10 years.

I love this country. You get to shear the sheep all day long, and not only do they not object, but then afterwards, they even thank you for it.

"Thank you, sir! May I have another?"

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Metaphor of the Day

The REIC dog really humped the "pied à terre" leg during this boom.

Friday, July 25, 2008

Hey-ho Hey-ho

From CBS: Housing Prices Drop By The Hour.

These numbers are sobering: If you are a homeowner reading this right now, when you wake up in the morning, the value of your house will have dropped about 45 dollars. And that's if you sleep just 8 hours.

If that isn't disturbing enough, wait until you see how much home prices have dropped in the past 2 years.

"I knew it was softening," said investor Philip Logue. " I just didn't realize how quickly, how fast the market was dropping."

When Logue put his Coral Gables house on the market, he thought for sure it would sell. He started at $650,000 in 2006. A couple of years later, and a $175,000 price drop. He's now renting the house out.

"I was really surprised," said Logue. " Especially at the end when we really dropped our pants down and I felt we were giving it away, and we still couldn't sell it."


After the pants down episode, a Joshua Tree was shoved up there!

The Distortionist

From Realtor.org: Existing-Home Sales Down In June.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – fell 2.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 4.86 million units in June from a pace of 4.99 million in May, and are 15.5 percent lower than the 5.75 million-unit rate in June 2007.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said first-time home buyers are critical to the health of the housing market.

Yun said there is a downward distortion in the price data.


BWAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHHHHHH!!!

They can't bring themselves to say that "prices are falling".

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHHHHHH!!!

By this logic, an avalanche is a "downward distortion in skiing conditions".

A thunderstorm is a "downward distortion in sunny weather".

A genocide is a "downward distortion in human lives".

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHHHHHH!!!

Thursday, July 24, 2008

The Joys of Home Pawn-ership

From the Boston Herald: Taunton woman commits suicide as home foreclosed.

TAUNTON - A 53-year-old wife and mother fatally shot herself soon after faxing a letter to her mortgage company saying that by the time they foreclosed on her house that day, she would be dead.

O’Berg also said a suicide note found next to Balderrama told her husband, John, and 24-year-old son to "take the (life) insurance money and pay for the house."


You weren't exactly the sharpest tool in the tool shed, were you, darling?

Life insurance doesn't pay off in case of suicide. Perhaps you should've read those documents just like you should've read the mortgage documents.

Police in Taunton said Carlene Balderrama used her husband’s high-powered rifle to kill herself Tuesday afternoon, after faxing the letter at 2:30 p.m.

Police did not immediately release the name of the mortgage company. O’Berg said Balderrama’s fax read, in part, "By the time you foreclose on my house I’ll be dead."


Aren't the joys of home ownership simply too delightful for words?

Saturday, July 19, 2008

Dementia

From ABC News: People lined up to get mortgage help.

A few years ago, Gary Robinson bought this home in Antioch for about $700,000 using an interest-only loan and an adjustable rate that started at about four percent and has nearly doubled.

"My mortgage is at $5,000 dollars. It went from $2,000 to $5,000 and the house is worth 60 to 50 percent less," said Robinson.

"So what I'm here to do is ask Washington Mutual to seek a return on my investment," said Gary Robinson, an Antioch Homeowner.


Yeah, they're going to give you a return on your "investment". Any day now. Just you wait.

Dude, you're demented. You singlehandedly are the best argument in favor of issuing "breeding licenses".

Monday, July 07, 2008

Everything beats the fuck out of Cleveland!

From Cleveland.com: Foreclosed homes depress prices throughout area.

The median home sale price in the city of Cleveland has dropped an astonishing 75 percent compared with the first six months of last year - from $62,000 to $15,500.

Guess it's all contained. Someone should send Paulson a memo.

Forty percent of single-family homes sold in Cleveland this year were purchased for less than $10,000.

Watch, out 1940's. Here we come!

Welcome to the Jungle

From Business Week: Upset homeowner shoots real estate agent in Mich.

A man upset about a property transaction fatally shot a real estate agent in the head during a meeting Tuesday morning in the victim's office, authorities said.

Troy VanderStelt, 34, was pronounced dead at 12:45 p.m. at Mercy Health Partners Hackley Campus in Muskegon, said Muskegon County Prosecutor Tony Tague.

A suspect was arrested a short time after the shooting at a home in nearby Norton Shores. Tague identified him as Robert Arnold Johnson, 73, of Roosevelt Park.

Tague said Johnson plotted to kill VanderStelt, took a .22-caliber semiautomatic handgun to the real estate agent's office, got him preoccupied with some paperwork in a conference room, stood next to him, pulled out the gun and shot him once in the temple.

Saturday, July 05, 2008

Flash 'n Sizzle

From the crappier Naples in Florida not the real one: Future uncertain for Third Street Plaza, some tenants say.

It’s a moving sale, the signs announce.

Reflections owner Larry Harris brought in his daughter and her boyfriend to help load the truck and haul the inventory into storage until he figures out a plan.

“We were so hard hit. Nobody was coming,” Harris said Wednesday morning while sitting in front of the shop he opened in November 2006.

On Gallery Row, the side that faces Broad Avenue, Gallery Matisse is gone, too.

In the past two years, The Good Life, a cookware store, left the Plaza; so did Bountiful, Artful Diva, Femme Fatale, Dominique Design Studio, Giggles and Glitz, Via Mediterranee, and ilSandalo on the inner courtyard.


Not THE Giggles and Glitz!

First the candle shops, then the pirate shops, and now the Artful Diva? And Giggles?

No way, man; no way.

Wednesday, July 02, 2008

Scuppered

From the Bay Area: Fremont's pirate store to abandon ship.

FREMONT — All hands on deck! The Tri-City area's unique pirate store plans to abandon ship after nearly three years on the stormy retail seas.

Owner Don Hatcher, 47, said SeaWolf Trading Co. will raise anchor by Aug. 31, when the store's lease is up.

"We did great the first year, but we've been in the swamp for the past year, ever since the foreclosures started," he said. "We started to immediately see sales start slumping.

He said an effort to build community around the store by hosting a regular Guitar Hero video game night only attracted a small crowd, a result he attributed to gas prices.

Hatcher also was a vendor at last month's second Northern California Pirate Festival in Vallejo. He said plenty of people attended but seemed to spend less than at last year's fest.

"It's a rare place in Fremont, as opposed to the usual strip mall crap," Neu said. "We'll miss it."


C'mon kids, by now you've had enough practice. Can you say it?

HELOC!!!

He plans to sell off the décor, including an elaborate treasure cave, as well as the discounted wares — which this reporter succumbed to — before the store is sent to Davy Jones's locker.

YAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!

Translation Engine

From Bloomberg: Paulson Calls for Process to Liquidate Failing Firms.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called for regulatory changes that would allow financial firms to fail without threatening broader market stability.

``Two concerns underpin expectations of regulatory intervention to prevent a failure,'' Paulson said. ``They are that an institution may be too interconnected to fail or too big to fail. We must take steps to reduce the perception that this is so -- and that requires that we reduce the likelihood that it is so.''


We must "reduce the perception that an institution may be too big to fail".

Washington insiders (and others generally well-versed in the political process) will have no trouble interpreting this statement but for the general benefit, let me provide a translation:

"Currently, a large bank, and plenty of small banks are in too much deep doo-doo for us to bail out.

Monday, June 30, 2008

You show those Yankees!

From the Telegraph: British household debt is highest in history.

British households are now more indebted than those of any other major country in recorded history, it has emerged.

Families in the UK now owe a record 173pc of their incomes in debts, official figures have shown. The ratio of debt to income is higher than any other country in the Group of Seven leading industrialised economies, and is sharply higher than the 129pc of incomes it was five years ago.

Michael Saunders of Citigroup warned that - at 173pc of household incomes - the debt burden is higher even than Japan's when it peaked in 1990, before more than a decade of deflation.


Let us review some basics:

Inflation is the expansion of money and credit. Deflation is the reduction of money and credit.

Can credit expand further in the UK? Possibly but unlikely.

What happens when debt is either paid back, or defaulted upon?

Thank you, that will be all.

That Decoupling Hypothesis?

Not the Chindians. Not the Brazorussians.

The Amish.

From Ohio: Amish in Ohio feel pinch of higher gas prices.

They may use horses instead of autos for transportation, but the rising cost of gasoline is still pinching the wallets of members of an Amish community in southern Ohio.

Miller, a carpenter and horse breeder who bought Keim Family Market in Adams County last July, said several items have doubled in price from 2007 to 2008.

"The care and feeding of one horse, from $1,000 to $2,000," he said. "The cost of propane we use to run our refrigerators. Diesel fuel to run our coolers at the store and the big mixers in our bakery. The fuel bills are about $8,000 a month. Last year they were $4,000. ... It all adds up."

It has sparked widespread worry.

"It feels like a little red wagon going down the hill faster and faster," Yutzy said. "You know what's going to happen."

Even so, many Amish say they will rely on what they know.

Sunday, June 29, 2008

Pawn Me Up, Pawn Me Down

From California: Year of the hock .

Ray Ellis, owner of Escondido Coin and Loan pawnshop, is used to customers coming in with rare or collectible coins for one of the four-month loans that is the industry standard.

Recently, customers have been seeking larger amounts, up to $50,000, Ellis said. He said one gentleman came in with a sack of gold coins in order to pay off debts on his investment properties in Orange County

But the credit crunch and economic turmoil is sending bigger fish their way.

Irene Longoria, store manager of the Oceanside Gems N’ Loans, said her shop is pricing all kinds of jewelry items as customers seek collateral for loans, or sell them outright. Belly rings, tongue rings, single earrings, dental grills and gold teeth are being brought in.

New customers are finding out a lot more than they bargained for at their local pawnshop. Martin said a woman recently expected hundreds if not thousands of dollars for the diamond ring she received as a gift, only to find out it was zirconium.

“She said, ‘It’s a diamond,’ and I said, ‘It’s not,’” Martin recalled. “Then she said, ‘That son of a b… !’”

One man came straight from the dentist, with gauze still in his mouth and blood on the tooth, she said.

“We just about screamed,” Longoria said. “I told him he should have cleaned it first. We’re seeing more and more dental scrap. We now have latex gloves to handle some of the things coming in.”

How do you say puta in English?

From MSN: Single mom selling Fla. home, heart online.

After a year of trying to sell her four-bedroom home and eight years of singledom, Deven Trabosh is offering her South Florida home and a shot at marrying her on the Internet.

"I figured let's combine the ad because I'm looking for love and I'm looking to sell the house," said Trabosh, who teeters around the nearly 2,000 square-foot house in patent leather heels.

Pimp me
Pimp me
Pimp me, bay-bee
Till I lose control
Pimp me with your love
Till I lose control
"I'm struggling...I don't want to lose my house and I want to find somebody," said Trabosh, who changed her name in the ad to Traboscia to keep people from finding her in the phone book.

And now, you gave your name out so that plan is working out real well.

Ideally, Trabosh hopes a European man will close the deal and says she's willing to move overseas.

Because only those furriners are so stupid.

Her 21-year-old daughter Haley says she just wants her mom to find love.

How about a two-for-one combo deal?

Academics Reveal the Obvious

From CEPR, a pretty-good academic paper: The Housing Crash and the Retirement Prospects of Late Baby Boomers.

This paper extrapolates from data from the 2004 Survey of Consumer Finance to project household wealth, by wealth quintile, for the cohort that will be between the ages of 45-54 in 2009 under three alternative scenarios. The first scenario assumes that real house prices fall no further than their level as of March 2008. The second scenario assumes that real house prices fall an additional 10 percent as a 2009 average. The third scenario assumes that real house prices fall an additional 20 percent for a 2009 average. The projections show that the vast majority of families in these age cohorts will have little or no wealth by 2009 in any of these scenarios and that the cohorts just approaching retirement will have very little to support themselves in retirement other than their Social Security. The projections also show that a large number of families in these age cohorts will have little or no equity in their homes in 2009. Finally, the projections show that the renters within the same wealth quintiles in 2004 will have more wealth in 2009 than homeowners in all three scenarios.

Saturday, June 28, 2008

Night of the Living Dead

Relativity

From the Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Miss. mortgage bust unlikely.

The Mortgage Bankers Association report showed nearly 10 percent of mortgages in Mississippi were delinquent in the first quarter of 2008.

"(But now) be glad you're not in Florida, because that's a disaster," said Bill Emmons, a senior economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, which serves northern Mississippi.


So 10% of foreclosures are normal?

Aah, wondrous economists who've never held a real job.

Friday, June 27, 2008

Containment : A Timeline

February 21, 2007: "I'm waking up less at night than I was [over the slowdown in housing]. So far, there's been remarkably little effect [from housing] on the rest of the economy."
- San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen (Source: MarketWatch)

March 28, 2007: "At this juncture...the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained."
- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (Source: AFX News)

April 5, 2007: "The damage from the subprime market has been largely contained."
- Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher (Source: Dallas News)

April 20, 2007: "I don't see (subprime mortgage market troubles) imposing a serious problem. I think it's going to be largely contained."
- US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (Source: Reuters)

April 20, 2007: "We do see some stabilization of demand in the housing market ... there is some indication that the market could be bottoming out."
- Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin (Source: Reuters)

Nothing to see here, folks. It's all contained.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Gay Marriage & Falling Knives

From US News & World Report: The Gay Marriage Home-Buying Discount.

From wellsfordrealty.com (fist pound, Zillow Blog):

Whether choosing to make California their primary or secondary residence by buying a home in San Diego, domestic partners seeking to take advantage of the new Same Sex Marriage Law in California can now get their wedding reception or a honeymoon getaway compliments [of] Wellsford Realty. With the purchase of a condo or home using their services, Wellsford Realty is rebating 33% back on the commission which can be used to celebrate their wedding day or plan that long awaited perfect honeymoon.
Wow, this latest ploy is quite desperate. It's also awesomely hilarious.

They have forgotten just one thing. Homos can do math in roughly the same proportion as the rest of the population so if they haven't been suckered into the RE market by now, this abomination won't exactly make them "catch a falling knife".

Or to translate it in terms that even the dumbest California Realtor™ can understand:

BWAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Slogan Shouting on Sunday

From the North Country Times: High-end neighborhoods also suffering.

Several homes in one of North County's ritzier regions, the San Diego neighborhoods of Rancho Penasquitos and Rancho Bernardo, have tumbled 30 percent in value.

Further, foreclosures are rising, leading some real estate agents to believe the depreciation will spread and worsen.

The two neighborhoods were particularly desirable communities during the housing boom, boasting a central location, with a short commute to either the ocean or downtown San Diego, strong schools and a bevy of brand-new, 4,000 square-foot homes with $1.5 million price tags.

Now, some of those homes are selling for $1 million, if the homeowner is lucky.

"All across the board, the market's been hit," said Eric Elegado, a real estate agent based in Mira Mesa. "Homes that sold for a million, they're going for $600,000."

The drop in prices has drilled gaping holes into a theory that the higher-end market could be immune to the housing recession.


Oooh, that stinger oughta leave a mark.

But, but, but, it's SLOGAN time.

The government made me do it.

No, that doesn't quite work.

It's ALWAYS a good time to buy a house.

Is it now?

The Guvernator will help.

The Goober-nator is a girly-man. He vill do nuzhing, and you vill like it.

McSame will lower taxes and save the market.

No, no, no, that doesn't work either.

Yomama will send checks to everyone, and save the day.

Not quite working out either.

Shaq is coming.

Shaq-A-Laqa-Boom Boom, baby! It's gone Boom-Boom.

The Boomers are coming.

The Bust is already here.

It's different here.

It sure as hell is.

Thank you, thank you, the EE will be here all week.

Saturday, June 21, 2008

Come back, Samuel Langhorne Clemens!

From the Dallas News: Eight arrested, three others indicted in North Texas mortgage fraud.

One of the defendants is Eric Farrington, 55, of Irving, a real estate investor, motivational speaker and convicted felon.

RE investor, motivational speaker, and convicted felon?

Or in Mark Twain's words, "... but the journalists seem to be repeating themselves."

Thursday, June 19, 2008

Who's Divine Now?

From the Sun Sentinel in Florida: Thousands in Orlando want Shaq to help with mortgages.

Shaq is used to facing down the NBA's most intimidating players, but is Orlando's mortgage mess too much for him?

A week after Shaquille O'Neal told the Orlando Sentinel that he's working on a plan to rescue Central Floridians facing foreclosure, he has learned just how widespread the problem is.

People like Belinda Petroccia.

"There are so many shysters out there who take advantage of you financially and emotionally," said Petroccia, who saw her income dip with the tumbling real-estate market and now faces foreclosure on her Wedgefield home in east Orange County. "When I saw this, I thought, 'That's what I need -- maybe Shaq can help.'"


Wow, the tone of her wistful prayer is quite something, huh?

We've seen sweet plaintive missives to the Sweet Baby Jeebus, St. Joseph, Hanuman the Mighty Magic Monkey, Thor, Ra, and ... now, Shaq?

Welcome to the Pantheon of the Gods, Shaq, baby!

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Bashing Boredom

Top ten phrases inducing boredom in the EE related to the housing bubble.

10. "it's all contained".
9. "do something urgent to address the problem"
8. "new urbanism"
7. "it's a buyer's market"
6. "the Baby Boomers are moving here"
5. "it's different here"
4. "we didn't know what we were getting into"
3. "we bought it for the children"
2. "foreclosure due to illness"

and the top candidate:

1. "dream house"

Boring. NEXT!!!

Monday, June 16, 2008

Deploying Deflating Double-D's

From CNN: Is America's suburban dream collapsing into a nightmare?

When Shaun Yandell proposed to his long-time girlfriend Gina Marasco on the doorstep of their new home in the sunny suburb of Elk Grove, California, four years ago, he never imagined things would get this bad. But they did, and it happened almost overnight.

"It is going to be heartbreak," Yandell told CNN. "But we are hanging on."

Yandell's marriage isn't falling apart: his neighborhood is.

In Elk Grove, some homeowners not only cut their own grass but also trim the yards of vacant homes on their streets, hoping to deter gangs and criminals from moving in.

Other residents discovered that with some of the empty houses, it wasn't what was growing outside that was the problem. Susan McDonald, president of a local neighborhood association aimed at saving the lost suburban paradise, told CNN that around her culdesac, federal agents recently busted several pot homes with vast crops of marijuana growing from floor to ceiling.

And only a couple of weeks ago, Yandell said he overheard a group of teenagers gathered on the street outside his back patio, talking about a robbery they had just committed.

When they lit a street sign on fire, Yandell called the cops.

In Shaun Yandell's neighborhood, this has already started to happen. Houses once filled with single families are now rented out by low-income tenants. Yandell speculates that they're coming from nearby Sacramento, where the downtown is undergoing substantial gentrification, or perhaps from some other area where prices have gotten too high. He isn't really sure.

But one thing Yandell is sure about is that he isn't going to leave his sunny suburban neighborhood unless he has to, and if that happens, he says he would only want to move to another one just like it.

"It's the American dream, you know," he said. "The American dream."


Welp, y'all all heard it here first a long time ago.

Take away those double-D's, and whatdya have left?

Yeah, yeah, yeah, bitches.
Ya know it, ya know it.
Ya always wanna show it...
Let's take away those double-D's.

"It's the American ream, you know," he said. "The American Ream."

Thursday, June 12, 2008

WOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! Party On, Garth!

From the Press Enterprise: Inland foreclosure auctions draw more sales as lenders get more flexible about prices.

Investors bought more foreclosed homes on the courthouse steps in California last month, reflecting a growing willingness of lenders to accept more deeply discounted bids, ForeclosureRadar, a Web site that tacks foreclosure auctions, reported Wednesday.

It was the first significant surge in investor activity at trustee sales since Foreclosure-Radar began tracking them in 2006, said its founder, Sean O'Toole.

Despite more than 97 percent of the foreclosed properties being returned to the lender after auction, there was a 34.6 percent increase in properties purchased by third parties, which most likely were investors, the report said.


Percentage returned (failed auction) = 97%

Percentage sold = 100 - 97 = 3%

This was a 34.6% increase from previous auctions.

Percentage previously sold = 3/1.346 = 2.23%

Percentage previously returned = 100 - 2.23 = 97.77%

You've gone from 97.77% failure to 97% failure.

Fuckin' A, Daddy-O!!! Crack open the Veuve Cliquot!

Thursday, June 05, 2008

Camp Granada

From the LA Times: Hard lessons on getting home loans with no money down.

Two years ago, Patricia Prado worried that she would never be able to buy a house.

Property values in this Central Coast farm town had been rising sharply, and Prado and her husband were burdened by $18,000 in debt from their credit cards and the loan on their Jeep Grand Cherokee.

A few weeks later, Prado bought a $412,000 house with a so-called 80/20 mortgage. Those mortgages are actually a pair of loans -- one for 80% of the purchase price and another for the remaining 20%.

Property values, of course, began falling sharply last year. And that left people such as Prado, who bought near the top of the market, owing more in loans than their homes were worth. Her home is set to be sold in a foreclosure auction next week.

She acknowledged that she stated her monthly income as $7,500 on the loan application -- nearly double what she was actually earning in her job as a clerk at a food processing company and a second part-time job.

With their income down after her husband's layoff, Prado said they made their last three house payments with a credit card. In February, they stopped payments altogether.

Her biggest challenge, she said, was trying to keep her children, a 10-year-old boy and 7-year-old girl, from figuring out what happened.

"They pick up on a lot of what's going on," she said. "They say, 'Why are you fighting with Dad? Why are we moving; we already have a house?'"


Dear Children,

Mommy and Daddy are complete and utter fuckups. One might even say that they are some of the biggest fuckups in town.

They bought a house they couldn't afford, and they were speculating even though they claim they're not.

Now, that they've got their financial clock completely and utterly cleaned, they're lying to you because they can't handle the truth themselves.

Love,
Your Friendly Neighborhood Banker.

That Deflating Feeling

From Yahoo!: Household net worth drops by $1.7 trillion.

Americans saw their net worth decline by $1.7 trillion in the first quarter - the biggest drop since 2002 - as declines in home values and the stock market ravaged their holdings.

Meanwhile, the amount of equity people have in their homes fell to 46.2%, the lowest level on record.

The net worth of U.S. households fell 3% to $56 trillion at the end of March, according to the Federal Reserve's flow of funds report, which was released Thursday.

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

"Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeere's Foreclosure!"

The Wall Street Journal reports: Ed McMahon May Lose Beverly Hills Home.

Ed McMahon, the longtime sidekick to television star Johnny Carson, faces the possible loss of his Beverly Hills home to a foreclosure action initiated by a unit of Countrywide Financial Corp.

ReconTrust, a unit of mortgage lender Countrywide Financial, on Feb. 28 filed a notice of default on a $4.8 million Countrywide loan backed by Mr. McMahon's home. The notice was filed with the Los Angeles County Recorder's Office but hasn't previously come to light. According to the filing, Mr. McMahon was then about $644,000 in arrears on the loan. It isn't clear whether Countrywide still owns the loan or is acting on behalf of investors who acquired it. Public records also show that Mr. McMahon had a separate home-equity line of credit from Countrywide of up to $300,000 secured by the same house.

Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Buy One, Get One Free

BWAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Sunday, June 01, 2008

Sunday School

From Business Week: The Lowdown on Libor.

Financial institutions the world over use Libor—short for the London interbank offered rate—to set the interest paid on everything from mortgage loans to complex financial instruments.

What's the recent controversy about?

With the aftereffects of the credit crunch lingering, a high Libor, especially relative to U.S. Treasuries, would set off alarm bells that capital-starved financial institutions are still at risk for further meltdowns, says market research firm Global Insight's Brian Bethune. Some industry insiders have accused the banks of quoting falsely low rates for the surveys in order to force down Libor and paint a rosier picture of the lending environment. It's more likely that the banks are simply reporting their best rates, not the rate at which they're most commonly lending, Bethune says. The BBA is conducting what it calls "a regular review," with results due May 30. In the meantime, proposals have been offered to ensure Libor's accuracy, from surveying more banks to ditching Libor in favor of an alternative rate.


The EE isn't quite sure when LIBOR turned into Libor (maybe the limp-wrist journalists have trouble writing capital letters?) but since he was, many moons ago, educated in a Catholic school, he will explain this supposed "paradox" in the form of a "parable".

"If the EE sold you the first burrito for $0.01, and all subsequent ones for $1,000, and you ABSOLUTELY had to eat 4 burritos or die, would you say that the burrito cost you $0.01, or was the true cost closer to $750?"

Monday, May 26, 2008

In Go(l)d We Trust?

From Las Vegas: Realtor works hard to survive tough times.

Gold and her husband, Andrew, worked banquets for casinos, earning - like many other resort workers - money to purchase property. Gold saw an opportunity.

A year after moving here, Gold got a license to sell real estate just like she once had California before quitting the business about 1985.

Gold, 62, bought nine homes and two condominiums in Las Vegas and four homes out of state. She couldn't believe her timing: When she started buying homes in 2001 and 2002, the median price of existing homes was $136,500. The price rose to $275,000 by 2005, and Gold's wealth grew to $4.5 million, not counting the six figures she earned a year as a Realtor.

"I came here in the golden age and realized this is a perfect time to make money. I felt for the first time that God blessed us," Gold says. "I was trying to create a future."


Firstly, the title is too easy to parody so the EE won't even bother.

"Everybody wants to move to Vegas," Gold says. "I believe in this market. It is not going away. It has started to turn around and this is the place to be."

Yeah, everyone wants to live in a lifeless desert that wouldn't even exist without water.

And yes, "belief" will keep the credit cycle in abeyance. And you'll be able to shake your finger at all those heathens and non-believers who are keeping your rightful success away from you.

After being able to make all her mortgage payments in the past through the end of 2007, Gold says she has fallen about $22,000 short each month on mortgage payments and is as much as four months behind on some payments. She lost access to her line of credit even though she is still paying it down. She also has to deal with some of her tenants' inability to pay rent.

Now you have the unique chance to tell everyone that "God's" economic cycle is shitting all over you.

The real estate market was hurting her income as a Realtor. Her once six-figure income fell to nothing because of no commissions in 2007.

Gold said she worries about prospect of foreclosure, but has no plans to file for bankruptcy. She remains adamant that she will survive these tough times.

"I am going to come through this fine," Gold says.


Tenants not paying rent? Losing $22K each month? I don't think Warren Buffett is shivering quite yet.

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Impressing Jules Dassin

From Bloomberg: Citigroup's `Last Roman' CDO Shows Enron Accounting.

Citigroup Inc. created a $2.5 billion mortgage-backed security called Bonifacius Ltd. in August as capital markets seized up and panic swept Wall Street.

The issue took the name of a general, called by historian Edward Gibbon the ``last of the Romans,'' who fought and died for a fading empire. The bonds were created from subprime home loans as demand evaporated. Within six months, Bonifacius collapsed as homeowners fell behind on their payments in record numbers.


There are 2.5 billion stories in the Naked Shitti.

Housing Data


Source: OECD
Graphs: EE

100 = "long term average"

A few statistical comments on these "ratios" that may not be obvious to people not familiar with using normalized quantities in statistics.

The beauty of ratios is that they are "dimensionless". So as long as both quantities are denominated in the same unit, the unit of measurement simply doesn't matter. The answer is the same in dollars, yen, rupees, barrels of oil, and heads of cows, and for point-in-time comparisons, we don't have to worry about inflation, etc.

The problem with these ratios is that the are emphatically not "normal" (for starters, they're always positive) and they have a tendency to be centered around a number, typically 1. You can't just perform regressions on these because the distributions tend to be strange (log-normal if you're lucky but mostly power-law-ish.)

Also, the extreme ends of these ratios tends to be meaningless. You can only meaningfully compare stuff near the "central tendency" (Think about Steve Job's house to Steve Job's income to understand what the EE means by that.)

However, none of that applies for this particular data since we're just graphing the central tendency over time.

Your Tax Dollars at Work

From the San Jose Mercury News: Calif. congresswoman failed to pay mortgage on home.

California Congresswoman Laura Richardson has a unique perspective on the housing foreclosure bills moving through Congress: One of her own homes was threatened with repossession after she failed to pay the mortgage.

Richardson, a Southern California Democrat, bought a two-story home in a leafy, upper-middle class neighborhood of Sacramento in January 2007, just months after winning a seat in the state Assembly.

Property records on file in Sacramento show Richardson bought the three-bedroom, 1 1/2-bath home on West Curtis Drive for $535,500.

The bill collectors started knocking soon after, according to records reviewed Wednesday by The Associated Press.

Another default notice in March of this year put the "unpaid balance and other expenses" at $578,384 and said her 1,639-square-foot house would be auctioned at a trustee sale. The county records show the property was sold to a company called Red Rock Mortgage Inc. of Sacramento for $388,000, although no listing could be found for the company.

Records on file at the Sacramento County Tax Collector's Office also show Richardson is delinquent in paying $8,950 in property taxes.

"I understand that these homeownership issues are a reflection of what many Americans are going through as they fight to keep their homes and to remain financially stable," Richardson said in her statement.


She feels her own pain, folks!

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

USA rah-rah-rah

There are many many conclusions that one can draw from this graph (not all depressing even.)

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Limerick

From the Boston Herald: Surf’s up, prices down

The outlook is cloudy for Nantucket’s once-sunny real estate market as the resort island sails into the crucial summer selling season.

In a sign of the times, the owners of some grand Nantucket estates are knocking millions off their price tags in a bid to lure buyers.


There was a young man from Nantucket
Whose house was so small he got stuck’n't.
He said with a groan
As he 'faulted his loan,
“If my ARM was an arse, I’d be f*ck’n't.”

Monday, May 19, 2008

Dear Prudence

From the South Oregon Mail Tribune: Daunting debt leaves 50-year-old with few good options.

DEAR BRUCE: I have been married for 30 years, and I'm 50 years old. I have done some major damage to my credit. I have borrowed against everything. I have refinanced my home, borrowing against my 401(k). Our home is worth $150,000, and we owe $135,000. I owe my 401(k) more than $20,000, and I have $20,000 in credit-card debt. I have been trying to reduce my debt, but it just seems daunting. Where do I go from here? I don't want to go bankrupt, but I'm just crushed. On top of everything, the company I work for is in financial trouble. — F.C.

This is the answer they gave:

DEAR F.C.: You do have a ton of problems here. While you say you don't want to go bankrupt, technically, you are bankrupt — you owe more than you are worth. First, you need to get out of debt. You didn't mention how much you earn, but you are probably so far in hock at your age, it would be difficult, if not impossible, to get out. You might also want to find a part-time job to help pay down the debt.

The EE will provide a translation:

DEAR F.C: You're bankrupt hence you are fucked. At your age, there are few options left. Consider borrowing a garage and a running motor. Be sure to put that last bottle of whisky on your credit card.

Metaphysician, Heal Thyself

Sometimes the stories just write themselves.

From the Snotrag of the Universe, the much self-laudatory New York Times: A Thicket of Easy Loans That Entangled One Mortgage Holder.

ROBIN SOTIRE thought she had a financial plan all worked out when she moved from Arizona to Connecticut in the summer of 2006 to handle her mother’s estate and care for an elderly aunt. She was going to sell her house in Arizona, fix up her mother’s three-family home in Stamford using home equity loans, and then sell both houses. With the profits, according to her plan, she hoped to pay off a $645,000 mortgage she had meanwhile obtained to buy her dream home in quiet, rural Redding.

But Ms. Sotire’s dream soon deteriorated into a financial nightmare and has turned her into a statistic in the national foreclosure story. The self-employed healer and metaphysical mystic is in at least $1.6 million debt and facing foreclosure on both Connecticut properties. After taking out a combination of first and second mortgages, refinances and home equity loans on all her properties, she plans to file for bankruptcy.


The EE has no idea what a metaphysical mystic is but it's impressive to know that the "healer" took on $1.6M in debt.

“As she juggled the Stamford and Redding properties, Ms. Sotire fell into a cycle of refinancing to get cash to stay afloat and avoid the steep increases of adjustable rate loans. She said she was unable to work as a healer - she is certified as a master in the Reiki technique - because she was so busy juggling all her responsibilities.”

“At times I was robbing Peter to pay Paul and was amazed when I got mortgages, but I really thought I’d be able to pay everything,” she said. “When houses didn’t sell, everything spiraled down. Looking back, I’m smarter and would do things differently.”


How about Vibrating to the Rhythms of the Universe™ to pay back those loans?

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Parody Time

Bad times bring out the creative element. (Found off the web.)

Casey Chavez Billabongo, aged 42, an undocumented mortgage broker, and his REALTOR™ wife, Shirley Summiss-Steak, bought their American Dream 3 bedroom rustic house in the desert, 4 hours drive from work which could have sold for $900,000 at peak of market in 2005. Purchased in 2004 with 125% "no-doc" mortgage and wanting to build their nest egg, they refinanced out to invest more equity into their home. Things started to go well in Casey’s and Shirley’s jobs and they used opportunity to jump in and buy 5 neighboring properties that they would flip for more profit. They got their idea from a popular TV program.

Nobody could have foreseen that market would suddenly downturn and the Billango’s efforts to sell their investment properties to investors from California and Europe, came to nothing, despite Shirley’s plan of providing cupcakes and planting statues of St. Joseph in the yards.

At the same time, nobody could of foreseen the price of gas for their Hummer going up so Casey had to pick up 3 part time jobs.

Shirley cashed in the $3,000 they had in their 401(k) and opened up her dream business: selling dog manicure sets on ebay.

Then disaster hit, their dreams came to an end when an unforeseen medical emergency happened. During a golf game where Casey was working as a Caddy, he was struck in the testicles by a freak lightening bolt. Requiring Cosmetic surgery, the Billabongo’s maxed out their 50 credit cards and took out a HELOC.

Unfortunately, nobody could have foreseen the interest only ARM reseting to 5 times Billabongo’s monthly income. Casey said “When I spoke to the mortage company, they said ‘did you even read your contract ?’ I mean who reads that stuff”. The Billabongo’s now facing foreclosure have appealed to their politicians for help. “We have been taken advantage of” said Shirley. “I am a classy person. I am a REALTOR™ and I have a Rolex.”

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Yousa screwed, Missa no help you

From CBS Marketwatch: Bernanke urged financial firms to raise more capital.

Banks and securities firms should continue to raise capital to help them navigate the treacherous waters of the financial market turmoil, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday. "I strongly urge financial institutions to remain proactive in their capital-raising efforts,"

Permit me to translate that into plain speak.

"Raising" capital either via debt or issuing more shares equals either increasing the risk, or diluting the current equity holder's stake.

Either way, this is a fairly explicit acknowledgment that the current owners are fooked with a capital F.

Dr. Bernanke might also want to review the concept of a Balance Sheet Recession.

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

How Government is Run

From the Washington Times:Regulators under fire for ignoring red flags.

Sheila Bair logged onto her e-mail account recently and got a pop-up ad offering a $175,000 home loan with monthly payments of only $400.

"I thought, 'Oh no, it's coming back already,' " said Mrs. Bair, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. chairman who had spotted problems with abusive and risky mortgages long before the mortgage crisis broke out last year.

The pop-up on the screen took her back several years to the time she first saw trouble brewing. The ads had been the warning flags: pop-ups, spam e-mails and junk-mail fliers offering loans at extraordinarily easy terms and low rates without explaining that the payments would eventually shoot up to unaffordable levels — a practice that will be banned in the future.

"Back then, we mainly looked at it as a consumer issue. I don't think anybody thought it had economic implications," Mrs. Bair said. Few people at the time had "a full appreciation of the costs of these mortgages, or [realized that] if the market stopped going up [borrowers] would lose their ability to pay."


First, we've met this bitch before right here. She is stupider than a rock, and the EE is insulting the rock, and he apologizes.

Secondly, if the buyers could only "pay" if the price was going up means that they were pulling out the appreciation to "pay" the monthly nut.

That is the freakin' definition of a Ponzi scheme which is illegal, the EE will point out to the ignorant government-salary bitch, for bleedin' obvious reasons.

However, we've lived through the Ultimate Ponzi Scheme.

What are the chances that she is doing this to preserve her job?

Monday, May 12, 2008

Academia Shmackademia

From the LA Times: In mortgage market, ‘walkaway’ homeowners may be urban myth.

Bankers and housing market analysts are warning of a chilling new trend in the mortgage world: Homeowners voluntarily defaulting on their loans even though they can actually afford to make the payments.

It's known colloquially as "walking away," or more jocularly as "jingle mail," from the sound your house keys supposedly make when you mail them back to your bank.

It's a way of saying that Americans are beginning to apply a cold financial calculation to home ownership: When a home's value has fallen below what is owed on its mortgage, they feel it makes no sense to keep up the payments.

But he said the bank did not have "firm figures" on how many homeowners were unnecessarily defaulting on their mortgages.

"We are working hard with our analytics to get at how much that is happening," Francisco said. Others suggest that it may be impossible to find out.

"How would you know what someone's true ability to pay would be?" asked Todd Sinai, an associate professor of real estate at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. "I'm not sure you could even come up with a definition."


Not to put too fine a point on it, Herr Doktor Professor, but the only goal of a lender is finding out the ability to repay. This is the core competency of a lender. If a lender can't even manage to do the job of their core competency, they should pack their bags and pick a different profession.

Of course, lenders also used to have downpayment requirements a.k.a. "skin in the game". Without any skin in the game, all the ability to repay isn't going to make them throw money on a rapidly devaluing asset.

Doubt the journalist knows their core competency here.

Sunday, May 11, 2008

How Much Land Does a Man Need?

From the once-esteemed New York Times: Losing a Home, Then Losing All Out of Storage.

The foreclosure crisis is hitting yet another American locale: the self-storage center.

As they lose their homes, people are turning to these humble cinderblock and sheet-metal boxes to store their stuff. But some people cannot keep up with their storage bills any better than they could handle their mortgage payments, and storage companies are auctioning off their property for a pittance.

Subprime mortgage loans had low “teaser” rates to lure borrowers. Many storage facilities offer the first month for free.

“You tell yourself, ‘I’m only going to put my things in for a short time,’ ” Mr. Blair said. “Before you know it, you’re behind. Then you have to pay penalties and interest. You owe $400 to $500. If you lost your job, you can’t come up with that, not if you want to feed your family.”

Nearly non-existent 35 years ago, self-storage has become ubiquitous, with 51,000 facilities nationwide. Even as the larger economy falters, the industry is flourishing. Executives say the mortgage crisis is one reason.

For some units, $6 is too much. “A dollar bill, first dollar bill takes it,” Mr. Snyder implored in front of one unit. “Come on, this is everything they own!” To no avail.


Finally, folks, we have the "money quote".

This is the eternal mystery of self-storage. If the material was worth money, it was foolish to let it go to default. If it was not worth much, why spend at least $50 a month to store it?

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Baby Jeebus Time

From San Francisco: Pray-in at S.F. gas station asks God to lower prices.

Rocky Twyman has a radical solution for surging gasoline prices: prayer.

Twyman - a community organizer, church choir director and public relations consultant from the Washington, D.C., suburbs - staged a pray-in at a San Francisco Chevron station on Friday, asking God for cheaper gas. He did the same thing in the nation's Capitol on Wednesday, with volunteers from a soup kitchen joining in. Today he will lead members of an Oakland church in prayer.

To solve the problem, Twyman isn't begging the Lord for any specific act of intervention. He is not asking God to make OPEC pump more oil. Nor is he praying for all the speculative investors to be purged from the New York Mercantile Exchange, where crude oil is traded.


Of course, monetary and fiscal policy have nothing to do it either.

C'mon baby Jeebus, we're all counting on you!

Thursday, May 01, 2008

Let's have a class-action lawsuit!

From the New York Times: Low Spending Is Taking Toll on Economy.

For months, beleaguered American consumers have defied expert forecasts that they would soon succumb to the pressures of falling home prices, fewer jobs and shrinking paychecks. Now, they appear to have given in.

As real estate prices plunge, so does the ability of homeowners to borrow against the value of their homes, crimping a major artery of spending. As banks grow tighter with their dollars in a period of uncertainty, families are running up against credit limits, forcing many to live within their incomes.


They have to live within their incomes?

Oh the horror, the horror!

Monday, April 28, 2008

How to Shoot Yourself : A Guide

From Redding.com: After year-ago dispute, Redding home to be in foreclosure sale.

It's been nearly a year since an east Redding home was auctioned off for $375,000, then taken back by the seller after the deal was voided, the result of a legal dispute.

At one time, owner Don Shearing asked $719,000 for the 2767 Vermeer Place house.

The home was built in 2003 on a lot that sold for $75,000.

So with much fanfare, Shearing and Pacific Auction Exchange, a Redding franchise that he owns, hosted a June 15 auction -- it wasn't a foreclosure sale -- that saw Ken and Jason Jones nab the home for $375,000.

But Shearing hired a lawyer and ultimately took the house back about a month later after both sides came to an agreement.

Now the nearly 3,000-square-foot home with a pool on Vermeer Place in Carriage Glenn Estates is on the brink of being lost to foreclosure.

A notice was posted last week for a May 13 public sale, at which time the three-bedroom, three-bath home will be auctioned off on the Shasta County Courthouse steps. Balance due on the note is $333,373.


The EE has a puny mind, and can't always detangle the thickets of the average reporter's mind. Let us reconstruct the above in a logical sequential way. These seem to be the facts:

The home was originally listed for $719K, and there were no bids.

Then the home was auctioned for $375K which would've netted you somewhere between $42K and $300K.

Instead, you sued the winners of the auction, paid the lawyer's fees, and you won. You won all right. You showed those miserable cowpokes who was boss.

Then, you relisted, got no bidders, and went into foreclosure instead.

What can the EE say?

Greed, arrogance, and stupidity are a deadly combo, yes?

Friday, April 25, 2008

Me and You and Everyone We Know

From Utah: Home sales plunging in Utah.

He said the glut of homes built by speculators is also a contributing factor, "and now it's hurting everybody," he said.

Not everybody.

Just the speculators. And the home debtors. And the over-leveraged people. And the six-percenters. And the knife catchers.

Not everyone though.

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Full Support?

From Vogue: Hard times ahead as porn goes soft?

Economists are citing some dire portents of a recession these days, but they've missed one indicator I find especially disturbing: The porn business has suddenly gone flaccid.

The drop in porn rentals and sales is worrisome on several fronts: Till now, porn has been a recession-proof business. Further, with the country already in a dispirited mood, the fact that porn has gone limp may indicate a true plunge in consumer confidence.


C'mon, folks! Help support the US economy.

Friday, April 18, 2008

Boudoirs are soooooooooo 19th century!

From the Rocky Mountain News: '07 Parade fails to make a sale.

Everyone loves a parade.

But maybe not so much if you were one of the five builders in the 2007 Parade of Homes.

The "parade," which featured five display homes in the $2 million range in Southshore near Aurora Reservoir, illustrates the plight of the struggling, upper-end market in the suburbs.

More than six months after the end of the parade on Labor Day, none of the five homes has sold. One is in foreclosure. Another is expected to end up there after its builder dissolved his construction company.

The home, which features a "woman's getaway space - a place for solitude, renaissance and peace," according to advertisement literature, is on the market for $1.825 million.


That must be where they "entertain", Biff, the hunky personal trainer.

Wayde Jester, consulting director for Metrostudy, a Houston- based realty-research firm that has been tracking the Denver area for seven years, said the problem "may be one of simple supply and demand. There's been a lot of building out there. If someone wants to invest $2 million in a home, it might not be southeast Aurora for most people."

You don't say?!?

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Eurodollar Positions

Floating around trading desks on Wall St. The EE has received too many emails with this!

Soon to be reversed. It's called flip-flopping.

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Sunday Schadenfreude

When the EE was a little boy, there would be a weekly radio program of songs on Sunday evening.

In honor of that, we present SUNDAY SCHADENFREUDE.

Since this is like radio, you need to click each video in order to appreciate the linearity of the presentation.

First, from Florida: Did appraisers juice Florida real-estate market?.

Appraisers so commonly pumped up house values to meet demands of developers, real-estate agents and lenders that complaints against them tripled in Florida in recent years -- the largest complaint increase for any profession regulated by the state.

Cheryl Oliphant of Santa Monica, Calif., bought a house that lenders shopped to appraisers as being worth $550,000. The registered nurse now thinks the appraisal was inflated.

A novice real-estate investor, Oliphant said she used her retirement savings and bought at the top of the market, thinking she had a great deal and instant equity in the house because it appraised for $50,000 more than the $450,000 sales price.

Oliphant has been trying to sell the house at a $100,000 loss and plans to file for bankruptcy, losing her $50,000 down payment. She said she might ultimately have to abandon that house and four others she bought in Florida.



From LA: Many areas are becoming ghost towns as families foreclose.

David Day's house-flipping strategy flopped and now he's fighting for his financial life.

Like so many others, he'll likely lose.

Day and his family are on foreclosure's doorstep, struggling to make mortgage payments totaling $6,240 a month.

"I haven't slept in five months. I wake up every morning in a cold sweat. I'm getting ready to go into bankruptcy," he said. "There is no money for food, basically."



From the Bay Area: Bay Area food stamp enrollment skyrockets.

Struggling with rising prices and a stalled economy, a growing number of Bay Area families are turning to food stamps.

In January alone, the county approved 1,743 applications — 3 percent more than during the same month in 2007.



Finally, a word from the patron saint of this blog, and our chief sponsor, hereeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee's Mr. Ogden Nash:

Love is a word that is constantly heard
Hate is a word that is not
Love, I am told, is more precious than gold
Love, I have heard, is hot

But hate is the verb that to me is superb
And love, just a drug on the mart
For any kiddie from school can love like a fool
But hating, my boy, is an art.
Thank you, thank you, please tune in again next Sunday for our weekly roundup.

Lawdy, lawdy, lawdy

From Rich Toscano (freelance writer.)

He's overlaid the comments of RE cheerleaders with the Case-Shiller index for San Diego. The Internet sure seems to be shutting down their show.

Man, this is freakin' hilarious!!!

Wednesday, April 09, 2008

The Teensy Weensy Problem

From California: March worst month yet for housing market.

"We haven't hit the terrified phase yet," said Harris, the Oceanside mortgage broker. "The sellers are going through the seven stages of denial. ... Eventually, they will get to the stage where it's, 'Holy crap, I'm not going to be able to make this mortgage payment anymore.'"

Thursday, April 03, 2008

F-art-ists!

From the BBC: France plans loans for art buyers.

The government says interest-free loans will be offered to "modest" buyers to purchase works and it is expanding incentives for companies to buy.

A survey out this week showed that, for the first time, France had dropped from 3rd to 4th place behind China in sales of art works.

"There is a real need to act," explained French Culture Minister Christine Albanel.


No, there isn't!

Under the scheme, members of the public will be granted interest-free loans worth up to 10,000 euros ($15,000, £8,000).

Yeah, this will really change the landscape. Really.

Lord knows, the EE is a fan of modern art, and lord knows, a little patronage never hurt anyone but are you freakin' telling me that these amounts change anything?

Anyone who is in a position to fork out real dough for art doesn't need a loan. Period.

This shouldn't come as a freakin' revelation, least of all to the Minister of Culture!

In any case, loans will not make the French art world "better", whatever such a term can possibly mean in the arts anyway. Either the buyers want the stuff, or they don't, and the loans for such miniscule amounts matter not a whit.

Boring. Next!

Food Stamps

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Giving Up

With all the changed proposals and laws, I give up. I've just signed a contract for a condo in my neighborhood with an Option-ARM.