From the SF Chronicle: Portion of men who work falling with wages.
Men who do have jobs are getting paid less. After accounting for inflation, median wages for men between 30 and 50 dropped 27 percent - to $33,000 a year - from 1969 to 2009, according to an analysis by Michael Greenstone, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economics professor who was chief economist for Obama's Council of Economic Advisers.
"That takes men and puts them back at their earnings capacity of the 1950s," Greenstone says. "That has staggering implications."
Welcome to the DEFLATION, baby!
Oh, and incidentally, the "staggering implications" are only "staggering" to MIT professors with embedded "eternal inflation" assumptions twinkling in their statistical datasets.
Sunday, August 28, 2011
The Irish Do Hunger Like No Others!
From the Independent: Families in modern Ireland skip food to pay the mortgage.
FAMILIES in modern Ireland are going without food to meet the demand of mortgage debt.
The arrival of the second wave of the economic crisis, giving rise for the first time in many decades to the spectre of hunger, has caused shock across the country.
The decision of homeowners to choose hunger over a fear of eviction helps expose as irrelevant the issue of "moral hazard", the defence of policymakers who resist calls for debt forgiveness.
In a letter to the Irish Times on Friday, MP Mac Domhnaill -- possibly a pseudonym -- an unemployed man from Tralee, wrote of the "anxiety and pain" the economic crisis had wreaked on his family.
The letter writer, who has chosen to use his dole payment to meet a €780 monthly repayment, told of how he had nothing to feed his children except bread and cereal.
One presumes that "mortgage" spells nothing like "potato" but the end result seems to be the same.
Incidentally, the word "mortgage" originates from French (via Latin) meaning "death pledge" which in this case seems to be taken quite literally.
Dude, hand the keys back, and walk away. What are they going to do?
Ironically, the same could be said for the entire nation of Ireland. Just default. What are they going to do?
Oh well, one would think that at rock-bottom, they would "get it".
Of course, it's not serious yet. For that, the Irish would have to stop drinking. Then, we'd be sure.
FAMILIES in modern Ireland are going without food to meet the demand of mortgage debt.
The arrival of the second wave of the economic crisis, giving rise for the first time in many decades to the spectre of hunger, has caused shock across the country.
The decision of homeowners to choose hunger over a fear of eviction helps expose as irrelevant the issue of "moral hazard", the defence of policymakers who resist calls for debt forgiveness.
In a letter to the Irish Times on Friday, MP Mac Domhnaill -- possibly a pseudonym -- an unemployed man from Tralee, wrote of the "anxiety and pain" the economic crisis had wreaked on his family.
The letter writer, who has chosen to use his dole payment to meet a €780 monthly repayment, told of how he had nothing to feed his children except bread and cereal.
One presumes that "mortgage" spells nothing like "potato" but the end result seems to be the same.
Incidentally, the word "mortgage" originates from French (via Latin) meaning "death pledge" which in this case seems to be taken quite literally.
Dude, hand the keys back, and walk away. What are they going to do?
Ironically, the same could be said for the entire nation of Ireland. Just default. What are they going to do?
Oh well, one would think that at rock-bottom, they would "get it".
Of course, it's not serious yet. For that, the Irish would have to stop drinking. Then, we'd be sure.
Saturday, August 20, 2011
The Awful Truth
From Bloomberg: Biden Tells Wen ‘You Have Nothing to Worry About’ Over Debt.
Vice President Joe Biden told Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao his government doesn’t need to worry about the safety of Treasuries as the world’s biggest overseas holder of U.S. debt.
"You see here, Wen, good buddy," said Plugs, "we have this thing called an electronic printing press, and my old friend Greenspan assures me that we can never default, we just keep printing. It’s so very simple really, now lets get hammered on some huáng jiǔ, buddy, and forget all this BS."
Vice President Joe Biden told Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao his government doesn’t need to worry about the safety of Treasuries as the world’s biggest overseas holder of U.S. debt.
"You see here, Wen, good buddy," said Plugs, "we have this thing called an electronic printing press, and my old friend Greenspan assures me that we can never default, we just keep printing. It’s so very simple really, now lets get hammered on some huáng jiǔ, buddy, and forget all this BS."
Bye-Bye, Baby!
From the AMA: 4% drop in U.S. birth rate is largest in 3 decades.
Birth rates nationwide declined by 4% on average between 2007 and 2009, reaching 66.7 births per 1,000 women age 15 to 44, according to a federal report. This is the biggest decrease in more than 30 years.
The relatively sharp decline in birth rates in some states is deeply affecting hospitals and ob-gyns. In Arizona, for instance, the rate declined by 12%, the largest decrease of any state.
That drop was steep enough to force John C. Lincoln Health Network to close its North Mountain Hospital's birthing center in Phoenix in February, according to the health network.
Birth rates nationwide declined by 4% on average between 2007 and 2009, reaching 66.7 births per 1,000 women age 15 to 44, according to a federal report. This is the biggest decrease in more than 30 years.
The relatively sharp decline in birth rates in some states is deeply affecting hospitals and ob-gyns. In Arizona, for instance, the rate declined by 12%, the largest decrease of any state.
That drop was steep enough to force John C. Lincoln Health Network to close its North Mountain Hospital's birthing center in Phoenix in February, according to the health network.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Is There a Mad Russian in the House?
Who is Nikolai Kondratieff?
Why should we care?
As always, the blog has been roughly two years ahead of the curve so expect this name to start getting bandied about roughly in 2013.
(Technically, he was a product of an earlier age, and phrased his theory in terms of fixed years -- a product of the gold standard -- but it really has to do with the "peak debt" of debt cycles.)
Why should we care?
As always, the blog has been roughly two years ahead of the curve so expect this name to start getting bandied about roughly in 2013.
(Technically, he was a product of an earlier age, and phrased his theory in terms of fixed years -- a product of the gold standard -- but it really has to do with the "peak debt" of debt cycles.)
Sunday, August 07, 2011
Food Stamp Update
From the Chicago Tribune: A record 45.8 million American using food stamps.
Nearly 15 percent of the U.S. population relied on food stamps in May, according to the United States Department of Agriculture.
The number of Americans using the government's Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) -- more commonly referred to as food stamps -- shot to an all-time high of 45.8 million in May, the USDA reported. That's up 12% from a year ago, and 34% higher than two years.
This is a sharp acceleration from the chart posted earlier.
Let's rephrase the evidence. 1.5% of Americans have been falling into poverty every single year. Absent this government handout, they would starve.
Nearly 15 percent of the U.S. population relied on food stamps in May, according to the United States Department of Agriculture.
The number of Americans using the government's Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) -- more commonly referred to as food stamps -- shot to an all-time high of 45.8 million in May, the USDA reported. That's up 12% from a year ago, and 34% higher than two years.
This is a sharp acceleration from the chart posted earlier.
Let's rephrase the evidence. 1.5% of Americans have been falling into poverty every single year. Absent this government handout, they would starve.
Saturday, August 06, 2011
Why Housing Will Not Be Bouncing Back (For A While)
There is the "obvious" reason that after a bubble, everyone shuns that asset class but we are here to observe "fundamentals".
There are three principal reasons:
Rents are still cheaper than prices.
Demographics will be working against housing.
Global wage-arbitrage.
The first reason, of course, is a classic. It was the argument based on "fundamentals" that there was a bubble in the first place.
The second and third are subtle, and the interaction of the two is equally subtle.
Basically, most of the money that Baby-Boomers need for retirement is in their houses. They have to sell that to someone in order to retire in the first place. That someone cannot be a younger person since they simply don't have the income to support the outlandish prices.
Yes, this is just a repeat but most of economics is the same ol' shit that you have to repeat again and and again and again and again till you are blue in the face because it never changes but somehow people never ever seem to get it.
There are three principal reasons:
The first reason, of course, is a classic. It was the argument based on "fundamentals" that there was a bubble in the first place.
The second and third are subtle, and the interaction of the two is equally subtle.
Basically, most of the money that Baby-Boomers need for retirement is in their houses. They have to sell that to someone in order to retire in the first place. That someone cannot be a younger person since they simply don't have the income to support the outlandish prices.
Yes, this is just a repeat but most of economics is the same ol' shit that you have to repeat again and and again and again and again till you are blue in the face because it never changes but somehow people never ever seem to get it.
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