Saturday, August 30, 2008

"Real" GDP

From the BEA website: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND CORPORATE PROFITS: Second Quarter 2008.

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of 2008.

Domestic profits of financial corporations increased $24.7 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $37.3 billion in the first.


Are you fuckin' kiddin' me?

Financial companies had NO true profits in either Q1 or Q2. In fact, they were busy taking writedown after writedown marking down even past profits as fake.

Guess someone forgot to tell the government statisticians.

BWAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Sunday, August 24, 2008

How to Lie Academic-style

From CNN Money via Yahoo!: Job Boom Could Be Coming Soon.

There is no denying that the job market is weak.

The Department of Labor has reported that 432,000 people filed for unemployment benefits in the past week - making this the fifth straight week that jobless claims topped the 400,000 mark.

And so far this year, there has been a loss of 463,000 jobs.

Yet, some are starting to see light at the end of the tunnel on the job front. Economists at the University of Michigan said in a report released yesterday that 900,000 jobs will be added next year and that 2.6 million more will be created in 2010.

"To get this sort of recovery, you'll have to have a turnaround in housing. So you'll have to see a pickup in construction jobs. We could also get a pickup in vehicle manufacturing with the shift to smaller cars," she said.


Does anybody believe this?

We've had the biggest housing bubble in history, a financial bubble that dates back to 1983, and a credit bubble that has infested every single asset class worldwide.

The US "consumer" has no more access to credit. It's put-up-or-shut-up time.

We are just about to enter what is likely to be the most deep recession since the Great Depression. There are 18.4 million houses that are currently unsold and unoccupied in the US, and these people are betting on a turnaround in housing?

Jeez, even Chicago Cubs fans are not so retarded.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

The `Preserves' are in a Pickle!

From The Washington Independent: Fraud Worsens Foreclosure Crisis.

At The Barber's Chair, in the small, quiet community of Accokeek at the far end of Prince George's County, Md., the talk often turns to the foreclosure crisis -- for good reason. Here, in the nation's most affluent majority black jurisdiction, a remarkable example of the growing wealth of the new black middle class, foreclosures are growing at one of the fastest rates in the country, and foreclosure fraud is increasing right along with it.

With locals constantly in and out, Leo Harrington, the owner, hears it all. How people who bought homes once valued at $800,000 down the the road at upscale subdivisions like The Preserves or at the one- and two-acre homesites of St. James have friends and relatives living in their basements to help pay the mortgage.


Aah, the Joys of Home Pawn-ership™!

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Cannibal Sector

From the New York Times via Yahoo!: Hungry at 30,000 Feet? Pay Up.

The announcement from US Airways in June that it was going to start charging coach passengers $2 for soft drinks and bottled water — water! — on all its domestic flights, as well as $1 for coffee or tea, is only the latest sign that when it comes to flying these days, there increasingly is no such thing as a free lunch.

Well, the article goes on for a bit, and it's a bloody bore of an article so the EE will give you the precis version.

(On a side note, they used to teach the EE how to write precis versions in English class. Guess the journalists never attended an English class nor learnt how to put stuff in "tabular" format.)

Here's the precis:

All airlines are charging, and prices are retardedly high.
Whoop-dee-doodle-doo!

Who didn't see that one coming? Raise your hands now. C'mon, c'mon, don't be shy.

This is news?!?

Anyway, for those prices, you could easily get a gourmet meal from Dean & Deluca "to go" and a half-bottle of wine (like Hannibal Lecter.)

Just to be really clear for those not in the "know" of New York stores, this is the store that the snooty matrons of Park Ave. hit when they want something "catered".

So crap airline food is being priced as pricier than the gourmé-ist of gourmet foods?!?

Looks like a "cannibalistic" death spiral to me.

India Rising

From the Washington Post: Indians Trapped by Debt as Easy Money Dries Up.

In the past two months, Ravinder Raina tossed and turned on many sleepless nights trying to re-do the math of his family's monthly expenses.

Rising mortgage payments, soaring inflation and fuel prices were beginning to put the squeeze on the spending spree he'd taken for granted for the past four years. So after painstaking discussions with his wife, he drew up a list of expenses to cut. The family would stop buying famous-brand clothes. They would not window-shop if they did not need anything. They would use credit cards less and replace their gasoline-fueled car with a vehicle that uses cheaper natural gas.

The past four years have brought India economic growth of seemingly unstoppable momentum, often 9 percent a year, helped along by big inflows of foreign investment. Rising incomes and low interest rates enabled many middle-class Indians to realize the dream of owning a home, even while still in their 30s.

Trapped in debt, many middle-class Indians are struggling to cope. Raina's monthly mortgage payment has gone up by 12 percent. "I have to cut corners now, or I may not be able to pay back my loan before retirement," he said. Payments on some loans have doubled since 2004, when interest rates were at a record low.

"The boom of the last four years mesmerized them to live beyond their means," said Deepak Raheja, a therapist who runs a support group called the Hope Foundation. "In the past ten weeks, I am getting five to six new patients every week with financial worries about mortgages, loan repayments and credit card bills. All in the age group of 25 to 40. They exhibit anxiety, helplessness and depression. Some even contemplate suicide."

"The Indian middle class is now deferring purchase decisions because they are locked in the rising mortgage trap from multiple loans. They did not anticipate this cash crunch. They thought India's growth story would only go up, up and up," Bijoor said.


Gee, where have we heard that "up, up, up" before?

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Prices don't drop except when they Drop

From the Ventura Star: Positive signs are seen in housing.

Prices don't appear to be falling as rapidly as they were, sales are rising, and default notices appear to be leveling off, said Mark Schniepp, executive director of the California Economic Forecast Project in Goleta.

If notices of default fall now, then foreclosures will peak and then start to decline in December, Schniepp said. Though he does not believe prices will drop much more, he predicts more year-over-year price declines.


So prices "won't drop" but he predicts more "price declines"?

My brain hurts.

Prices won't drop but they will decline. Should we bring in a buncha English majors to analyze this one?

Post-modernism, eat your heart out.

Derrida, Deleuze, Guattari, where the fuck are you?

C'mon Baudrillard, is this is a "simulacra" of reality, or a "simulation" of reality, or is this "reality", or is this reality?

Let's get a debate going, bee-yatches, about the difference between a "price drop" and a "price decline".

BWAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Getting Non-Insurably Banged (Jiggly-Jiggly)

From The Bakersfield Californian: Building halted at two City in the Hills tracts.

Construction at two neighborhoods in northeast Bakersfield’s City in the Hills development has been halted by one of the builders there, K. Hovnanian Homes, a company official said.

Rosemary Arbor and Lantana’s Edge are on hold, said Joseph Manisco, vice president and chief legal officer at the company’s Southern California regional office in Ontario.

Manisco said the tracts weren’t profitable.

Corina Hilton, meanwhile, said on top of everything else, her home took more than a year to get built — she bought it almost two years ago, paying much more than units now go for — and has had numerous problems since she moved in at the end of last year.

“I got screwed,” Hilton said.


BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Monday, August 18, 2008

Financial Quote of the Day

Kicking a California Realtor™ in the tits is a "deflationary" event these days.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Goring Sacred Bulls

Heaven knows the EE is not Hemingway's biggest fan but this quote from Esquire, 1935 is quite apposite:

The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Quick Quiz on Investments

If you only had $1,000 to "invest", what would you do?

(Let's assume you have emergency funds and all that jazz, but you only have an extra $1,000 to invest.)

Remember the goal? You need to maximize ROI (return on investment.)

The answer will probably surprise you.

(Hint: What happens if only had $500 or even $250?)

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Hilarious

Awesomely funny.

(Source: Cassandra Does Tokyo.)

ACME Systematic Leveraged Macro Momentum Fund LP
321 Overprice Street
Greenwich, CT
00573

Dear Investor,

This letter is to inform you that the wheels have come off of the proverbial wagon at ACME Systematic Leveraged Macro Momentum Fund LP, and that the same awesome thematic portfolio that made you feel (in the first half-year) as if you'd become very rich in comparison to those sucking wind on their leveraged MBS portfolios or Japanese Small-Cap Value Funds, has, quite literally, spontaneously combusted in our faces.

Our long-oil (PBR, SU, SWN), long coal (MEE, BTU), long fertilizer (POT, MOS), and long iron ore (CLF, RIO) positions have been crushed (no pun intended), and though we remain hopeful going forward as the story remains "in tact", our models have forced us to sell some in response to prevailing price action. Our offsetting shorts in selected financials (MS, BLK, GS, and LM) have not fared as we expected, while our core retail and consumer discretionary shorts in AZO & URBN, DECK have quite literally been lodged deeply and inexplicably in an unmentionable orifice.

If that were all we'd not be too sullen, all things considered, but unfortunately our short US dollar positions (vs. everything), our JPYNZD & CHFAUD carry trades have also not performed to forecasted expectations, and both our our long-only, and zero-exposure long vs. short commodity baskets have imploded with a rapidity that would even frighten Taleb to vows of silence. Oh, and if that weren't enough, our gold and silver longs, too, have gone south as if trying to re-embed themselves in the ground, whilst the short Russell-2000 ETFs we've been using as a hedge have been behaving all-too priapically. These losses of course are not as bad - relatively speaking - as some of our peers (who regretfully are no longer in business) and should of course be viewed in the proper context of our delft avoidance of long exposure in the worst of the RMBS and CMBS sectors, our eschewing of becoming a CDO issuer/manager, and our resolve to avoid anything denominated in Icelandic Kronor. Unfortunately we still have a large (leveraged) position in high-yielding cov-lite loans, US sub-prime credit-card-backed receivables for which we remain unable to obtain sensible bids at levels near to where our auditors and administrators agreed that we should pay our prior year's incentive fees. Only our long Japanese REIT portfolio and our unlisted fund of Spanish Olive Groves have held their ground, though regretfully we refrained from hedging the currency risk, and so these too, are now in the red and eroding rapidly.

We have no explanation, since our trades are systematically based upon doing what others are doing (only, hopefully, faster... though, in this instance, not fast enough). Nor do we offer you apologies. You [presumably] knew the risks, and felt the glory (if only for a while). We do lament the the now-sky-high high-water mark, and the absence of performance fees (this year).

Finally, saving the best for last, we will be suspending redemptions as per the Force Majeureclause 6(c)-2 of the Private Placement Information Memorandum of the Fund. We trust you'll agree that only something supernatural could have torpedoed such a finely constructed portfolio put together by the best and the brightest Wall St. has to offer.

Yours sincerely,

Hugh G. Fallis - Managing Partner
ACME Systematic Leveraged Macro Momentum Fund LP

Saturday, August 09, 2008

Uncontroversial Advice

Well, the email lines seem to be clogged. O Great EE, or O Asshole EE, now that you have already predicted what's coming down the poop-chute, what shall we do?

Insert hand-wringing. Cue Edith Wharton.

So in the great spirit of decency (rare for the EE), here's some non-controversial advice about the credit upheaval and the upcoming depression.

If you have a gift card to any store, blow the money NOW!

That store may or may not last. Chances are it won't. Will they last through the New Year? Unless, you can read a balance sheet, who the fuck knows? And even then, given their exposure to "derivatives", all bets are off.

Blow 100% of all of your gift cards right now, and don't look back.

This is about as uncontroversial as any advice about finance gets. It's pretty bleedin' obvious.

Also, don't hand out any gift cards. That's pretty fuckin' obvious too.

Friday, August 08, 2008

USA or Rural China?

From the Merced Star: Living in limbo: Tenants feeling the mortgage mess.

Brandy Menina's apartment hasn't had hot water for six weeks.

When she and her three teenage daughters want to bathe and wash their long hair, she fills up four pots and two roasting pans with water and heats them on the stove.

Sounds like the kind of problem she should complain to her landlord about. But Menina doesn't enjoy a typical landlord-tenant situation. The apartment building she lives in is in foreclosure.

Now a bank owns it, and it's hired a real estate company to sell the building. They want her out so they can sell it. Menina says she'll leave when she can -- legally, she's entitled to stay for at least another month.

In the meantime, she's waging a battle to get her hot water turned back on.


Welcome to the First World™!

Thursday, August 07, 2008

The Realtard™ Chronicles

From USA Today: Realtors live close to the edge.

Jack Jentzen never saw it coming. Four years ago, as a real estate agent in Elgin, Ill., he was enjoying the rewards of the most frenzied U.S. housing market in decades, and money poured in.

Now he's fighting to keep his home.

"I'm looking at jobs that are way lower than what I was once making," says Jentzen, 43.

As his business started to wither away, so did his financial security. He took out an equity line on his house. He exhausted most of his savings. The value of his home plummeted, and his lender cut off his equity line. Credit card bills climbed.

"The money in the bank is going to run out. If we lose this house, what do we do? What does my daughter do? My dad? I felt depressed and saw a psychologist. The market's just so tough now."

Shirley Van Scoyk, a Realtor in West Chester, Pa., spends her days on her farm with the horses she boards and her 80-pound American bulldog puppy. It might sound idyllic, but days with no work feel agonizing to her. At the moment, she has only one listing — her son's house. It's been on the market for three months.

"The hardest thing, where it all starts to unravel, is the effect of the difficult market on my self-esteem," Van Scoyk says.

When home sales were booming, she reveled in snagging sales and closing deals, and then snacking on crackers and soda in her car on the way to a settlement she'd struggled to move to the table.

"When the market is challenging like this, all the drama is gone, the hunt is gone, and this eats at your soul," she says. "I love doing business, and there is less business to do. I am in mourning for my work life. … I worked hard to get to be a Realtor. It made me a professional and a success. That bothers me worse than the income loss. I'm so incredibly depressed by not having work."

Robert Millosh, a Realtor for Re/Max in Middlesex County, N.J., says he'll need to find some other job to stay in the area. He used to earn at least $30,000 annually as a Realtor. Right now, he says, home sales are so dismal that he's looking at a job change or a move to Florida or Pennsylvania.

"I am almost broke and struggling to get by from day to day," says Millosh, who is 45 and single. "I'm having an estate sale for most of the furniture I have that I don't need. My life has been ripped apart."

Milltown, N.J., is a quaint small town, the kind of place families want to move to. They have an all-American Fourth of July celebration, with a parade, fishing, rodeo, a band in the park and fireworks at night. Millosh says it would be a hard place to abandon, but he might not have a choice.

He says he got in over his head after he began caring for his mother. His house was valued at $411,000 last year when he refinanced, and this year houses in his neighborhood were selling for less than $300,000. He's trying to sell his home for $349,000. His grandmother and mother built the house in 1951 for $18,000, and Millosh took out a mortgage in 2004 when his mother began to have medical problems. The original mortgage was for $100,000.

Now, he is looking at renting out rooms. Renting out his entire house or selling it, he says, could leave him homeless.

He took a bartending class in hopes of getting a job but says he could find only jobs as a busboy. "I've been looking for a job since October of last year and have yet to find anything," Millosh says. "I apply for anything, as long as it meets my minimum salary and travel area. I figured real estate would always be there for me."


Let me remind readers again that these are "used house" salesmen. They have no particular skills. The best job one could find was as a busboy.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Sunday, August 03, 2008

Crazy Math

From CNN: Foreclosures linked to subprime fraud.

Mortgage scammers took advantage of loopholes in New York State lending laws to defraud homeowners and lending institutions all over the state, according to a new report released Thursday.

In one example from 2006, Suzette Francis, a woman with two young children, no assets, working as a $10-an-hour security guard and living in a homeless shelter, obtained a mortgage for $470,000 that, as the report stated, "exhibited...every characteristic and feature associated with dangerous subprime loans."

Francis had down payment and no proven income or assets. Her adjustable rate mortgage started at 10.8% and was capped at 16.85%. At that rate, even her initial monthly payment came to more than $4,400. She would have to work 400 hours a month just to pay her loan.


And yet there are only 168 hours in a "traditional" week!

Saturday, August 02, 2008

The Goobernator Tries to Collect Rent

From Delaware Online: Landlord crashes Hummer into tenants' home.

A landlord who was apparently upset at his tenants because they were behind on their rent crashed his Hummer into their home – his property – and then attempted to kick the door down, according to police.

Yeah, that'll really show who's boss. Crashing a hummer into your own home.

You really showed them, dude, you really showed them.