Friday, July 07, 2006

Where do I begin?

And from Denver, reporting for the Rocky Mountain News, we have John Rebchook in Home sale prices in June set new record

He (Broker Darrel Evangelista) said the record number of unsold homes on the market doesn’t trouble him because with the metro area’s growing population, he would expect the inventory number to increase. "I’m not concerned about a housing bubble or prices crashing like they did in the 1980s," he said.

"Ai! Ai!" wailed Badass, "A Dumbfook is come!"

Firstly, shouldn't the reporter ask why is he not concerned? As in, what is the reason that he is not concerned? Divine revelation, perhaps?

Secondly, if you have a growing population, why do you also have record inventory? Clearly, one of those doesn't make sense, and since the latter is data, it must be the former.

Thirdly, you can easily get population growth data. Did the reporter bother cross-checking the facts? It took me all of 30 seconds to type "Denver population growth" on Google.

Denver is growing (2.5%) but very slowly certainly not enough to offset the "record inventory growth". (US population growth is just a smidgen over 1%.)

Lastly, if you have a vast increase in supply but not demand, guess what that does to prices! Now go read the last sentence again.

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