Thursday, January 10, 2008

Positivitiy

So I was told, instead of being "negative", why don't you say something positive about journalism and economics.

Fine.

I offer you my three rules of how to read any economics story in the press (everything from the Economist to the New York Times.)

Instead of asking if something is true, you should ask:
  • Is the story even remotely plausible?

  • If yes, whose interests are being advanced by the story?

  • Why did the press print this story, and not something else?

    The answer to the last question can frequently be reduced to the trivial, "it's in the news". The answer to the second question is rarely trivial, if ever.

    For example, when Buffett (whom I admire, and who's as honest as is possible in the business world) calls financial derivatives: "weapons of mass destruction", I don't run around like a headless chicken.

    The three answers are:

  • Yes.

  • Because fearful people buy insurance, and Buffett is in the business of selling insurance (in this case, "reinsurance", but let's not quibble.)

  • Because he is well respected.

    Please note Mr. Buffett's self-interest. I don't think anyone ever hands out gold nuggets for free.
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