Stick a fork in it!

From the Bend Bulletin, we have David Fisher writing about Signs of a slowdown.

The market looked great when he sunk his life's savings into his brand-new company, Yelas Developments Inc., in December, after 10 years of doing project management for larger production developers in Portland and then Bend.

The company's first few homes sold easily in the spring, Yelas said, so he quickly plowed the money into new in-fill lots around Bend, paying $145,000 to $220,000 per lot just for the dirt - about the top of the market.

Suddenly, sometime in May, the lights went out on rapid real estate sales "just like someone flipped a switch," he said. Now he's sitting on the three finished east Bend homes off Boyd Acres Road while he and his subcontractors work to complete more in various locations on the west and east sides.

Yelas said he's gotten to the point where he'd be happy to break even on the east Bend homes, just to free up some cash flow and cut some holding costs before winter arrives in earnest. Next spring, he's counting on sales as a whole to loosen up.

"The market has bottomed," he said, pointing out the maple flooring, the knotty alder cabinets, and the view from his Freedom Place house. "This is as bottom as it's gonna get. I mean, look at our stupid signs on the fence.

Yep, look at your stupid signs! And what do your stupid signs have to do with the market bottoming?

Let's look at the fundamentals. You paid roughly $200K for just the parcel of land. Chances are your building costs were roughly $200K which brings the price of the product up to $400K.

The median income in Bend, OR is roughly $40K. Who the fuck can afford to pay you $400K when they're making $40K? (The rule of thumb is 3X your income.)

Who's looking stupid now?