From the SF Chronicle: Portion of men who work falling with wages.
Men who do have jobs are getting paid less. After accounting for inflation, median wages for men between 30 and 50 dropped 27 percent - to $33,000 a year - from 1969 to 2009, according to an analysis by Michael Greenstone, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economics professor who was chief economist for Obama's Council of Economic Advisers.
"That takes men and puts them back at their earnings capacity of the 1950s," Greenstone says. "That has staggering implications."
Welcome to the DEFLATION, baby!
Oh, and incidentally, the "staggering implications" are only "staggering" to MIT professors with embedded "eternal inflation" assumptions twinkling in their statistical datasets.
Sunday, August 28, 2011
The Irish Do Hunger Like No Others!
From the Independent: Families in modern Ireland skip food to pay the mortgage.
FAMILIES in modern Ireland are going without food to meet the demand of mortgage debt.
The arrival of the second wave of the economic crisis, giving rise for the first time in many decades to the spectre of hunger, has caused shock across the country.
The decision of homeowners to choose hunger over a fear of eviction helps expose as irrelevant the issue of "moral hazard", the defence of policymakers who resist calls for debt forgiveness.
In a letter to the Irish Times on Friday, MP Mac Domhnaill -- possibly a pseudonym -- an unemployed man from Tralee, wrote of the "anxiety and pain" the economic crisis had wreaked on his family.
The letter writer, who has chosen to use his dole payment to meet a €780 monthly repayment, told of how he had nothing to feed his children except bread and cereal.
One presumes that "mortgage" spells nothing like "potato" but the end result seems to be the same.
Incidentally, the word "mortgage" originates from French (via Latin) meaning "death pledge" which in this case seems to be taken quite literally.
Dude, hand the keys back, and walk away. What are they going to do?
Ironically, the same could be said for the entire nation of Ireland. Just default. What are they going to do?
Oh well, one would think that at rock-bottom, they would "get it".
Of course, it's not serious yet. For that, the Irish would have to stop drinking. Then, we'd be sure.
FAMILIES in modern Ireland are going without food to meet the demand of mortgage debt.
The arrival of the second wave of the economic crisis, giving rise for the first time in many decades to the spectre of hunger, has caused shock across the country.
The decision of homeowners to choose hunger over a fear of eviction helps expose as irrelevant the issue of "moral hazard", the defence of policymakers who resist calls for debt forgiveness.
In a letter to the Irish Times on Friday, MP Mac Domhnaill -- possibly a pseudonym -- an unemployed man from Tralee, wrote of the "anxiety and pain" the economic crisis had wreaked on his family.
The letter writer, who has chosen to use his dole payment to meet a €780 monthly repayment, told of how he had nothing to feed his children except bread and cereal.
One presumes that "mortgage" spells nothing like "potato" but the end result seems to be the same.
Incidentally, the word "mortgage" originates from French (via Latin) meaning "death pledge" which in this case seems to be taken quite literally.
Dude, hand the keys back, and walk away. What are they going to do?
Ironically, the same could be said for the entire nation of Ireland. Just default. What are they going to do?
Oh well, one would think that at rock-bottom, they would "get it".
Of course, it's not serious yet. For that, the Irish would have to stop drinking. Then, we'd be sure.
Saturday, August 20, 2011
The Awful Truth
From Bloomberg: Biden Tells Wen ‘You Have Nothing to Worry About’ Over Debt.
Vice President Joe Biden told Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao his government doesn’t need to worry about the safety of Treasuries as the world’s biggest overseas holder of U.S. debt.
"You see here, Wen, good buddy," said Plugs, "we have this thing called an electronic printing press, and my old friend Greenspan assures me that we can never default, we just keep printing. It’s so very simple really, now lets get hammered on some huáng jiǔ, buddy, and forget all this BS."
Vice President Joe Biden told Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao his government doesn’t need to worry about the safety of Treasuries as the world’s biggest overseas holder of U.S. debt.
"You see here, Wen, good buddy," said Plugs, "we have this thing called an electronic printing press, and my old friend Greenspan assures me that we can never default, we just keep printing. It’s so very simple really, now lets get hammered on some huáng jiǔ, buddy, and forget all this BS."
Bye-Bye, Baby!
From the AMA: 4% drop in U.S. birth rate is largest in 3 decades.
Birth rates nationwide declined by 4% on average between 2007 and 2009, reaching 66.7 births per 1,000 women age 15 to 44, according to a federal report. This is the biggest decrease in more than 30 years.
The relatively sharp decline in birth rates in some states is deeply affecting hospitals and ob-gyns. In Arizona, for instance, the rate declined by 12%, the largest decrease of any state.
That drop was steep enough to force John C. Lincoln Health Network to close its North Mountain Hospital's birthing center in Phoenix in February, according to the health network.
Birth rates nationwide declined by 4% on average between 2007 and 2009, reaching 66.7 births per 1,000 women age 15 to 44, according to a federal report. This is the biggest decrease in more than 30 years.
The relatively sharp decline in birth rates in some states is deeply affecting hospitals and ob-gyns. In Arizona, for instance, the rate declined by 12%, the largest decrease of any state.
That drop was steep enough to force John C. Lincoln Health Network to close its North Mountain Hospital's birthing center in Phoenix in February, according to the health network.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Is There a Mad Russian in the House?
Who is Nikolai Kondratieff?
Why should we care?
As always, the blog has been roughly two years ahead of the curve so expect this name to start getting bandied about roughly in 2013.
(Technically, he was a product of an earlier age, and phrased his theory in terms of fixed years -- a product of the gold standard -- but it really has to do with the "peak debt" of debt cycles.)
Why should we care?
As always, the blog has been roughly two years ahead of the curve so expect this name to start getting bandied about roughly in 2013.
(Technically, he was a product of an earlier age, and phrased his theory in terms of fixed years -- a product of the gold standard -- but it really has to do with the "peak debt" of debt cycles.)
Sunday, August 07, 2011
Food Stamp Update
From the Chicago Tribune: A record 45.8 million American using food stamps.
Nearly 15 percent of the U.S. population relied on food stamps in May, according to the United States Department of Agriculture.
The number of Americans using the government's Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) -- more commonly referred to as food stamps -- shot to an all-time high of 45.8 million in May, the USDA reported. That's up 12% from a year ago, and 34% higher than two years.
This is a sharp acceleration from the chart posted earlier.
Let's rephrase the evidence. 1.5% of Americans have been falling into poverty every single year. Absent this government handout, they would starve.
Nearly 15 percent of the U.S. population relied on food stamps in May, according to the United States Department of Agriculture.
The number of Americans using the government's Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) -- more commonly referred to as food stamps -- shot to an all-time high of 45.8 million in May, the USDA reported. That's up 12% from a year ago, and 34% higher than two years.
This is a sharp acceleration from the chart posted earlier.
Let's rephrase the evidence. 1.5% of Americans have been falling into poverty every single year. Absent this government handout, they would starve.
Saturday, August 06, 2011
Why Housing Will Not Be Bouncing Back (For A While)
There is the "obvious" reason that after a bubble, everyone shuns that asset class but we are here to observe "fundamentals".
There are three principal reasons:
Rents are still cheaper than prices.
Demographics will be working against housing.
Global wage-arbitrage.
The first reason, of course, is a classic. It was the argument based on "fundamentals" that there was a bubble in the first place.
The second and third are subtle, and the interaction of the two is equally subtle.
Basically, most of the money that Baby-Boomers need for retirement is in their houses. They have to sell that to someone in order to retire in the first place. That someone cannot be a younger person since they simply don't have the income to support the outlandish prices.
Yes, this is just a repeat but most of economics is the same ol' shit that you have to repeat again and and again and again and again till you are blue in the face because it never changes but somehow people never ever seem to get it.
There are three principal reasons:
The first reason, of course, is a classic. It was the argument based on "fundamentals" that there was a bubble in the first place.
The second and third are subtle, and the interaction of the two is equally subtle.
Basically, most of the money that Baby-Boomers need for retirement is in their houses. They have to sell that to someone in order to retire in the first place. That someone cannot be a younger person since they simply don't have the income to support the outlandish prices.
Yes, this is just a repeat but most of economics is the same ol' shit that you have to repeat again and and again and again and again till you are blue in the face because it never changes but somehow people never ever seem to get it.
Sunday, July 10, 2011
Bring the Good Times Back!
On warm lazy summer days, one waxes nostalgic for the times when the blog used to be fun.
Gotta grind harder during the Big-D, yo!
In Miami, Ron Shuffield, president of Esslinger-Wooten-Maxwell Realtors, predicted that a limited supply of land coupled with demand from baby boomers and foreigners would prolong the boom indefinitely.Oh baby! Those were the good times. When you didn't have to work hard for a whine-fest-worthy quote. It's all doom and gloom these days.
"South Florida," he said, "is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past."
Gotta grind harder during the Big-D, yo!
Saturday, July 09, 2011
Any Fool Could See This!
People can't understand the difference between "inflation" or "deflation" because they keep focusing on the wrong things (like prices.)
Inflation in a fiat economy is the increase in credit. Deflation is default of past credit.
What do they have in common though?
Lack of purchasing power.
However, for entirely different reasons.
In, inflationary economies (US 1970's, India 2011, China 2011), you are losing purchasing power because your salary is not keeping track of the money printing machines (= prices.)
In deflationary economies (US today, Greece 2011, Spain 2011), you are losing purchasing power because your wages are collapsing relative to prices.
Yes, it can be coincidental. It's called "money flow". What's inflation for one economy is the deflation for the rest and vice-versa.
In the US, we are still very much (and shall continue to be) in the Big-D!
Inflation in a fiat economy is the increase in credit. Deflation is default of past credit.
What do they have in common though?
Lack of purchasing power.
However, for entirely different reasons.
In, inflationary economies (US 1970's, India 2011, China 2011), you are losing purchasing power because your salary is not keeping track of the money printing machines (= prices.)
In deflationary economies (US today, Greece 2011, Spain 2011), you are losing purchasing power because your wages are collapsing relative to prices.
Yes, it can be coincidental. It's called "money flow". What's inflation for one economy is the deflation for the rest and vice-versa.
In the US, we are still very much (and shall continue to be) in the Big-D!
The Goldawn Glory (Minus the Gloworm Gleam)
It's not fun unless you do that, yo!
“If actions taken by the administration, the Congress, and the Federal Reserve are successful in restoring some measure of financial stability — and only if that is the case, in my view — there is a reasonable prospect that the current recession will end in 2009 and that 2010 will be a year of recovery,” Mr. Bernanke said.Two QE's later, and the unemployment rate is larger than that of the quote (Feb 2009.)
How are those academic theories working out, professor?
That D-Word in Labor
MSNBC reports: Major grocer getting rid of self-checkout lanes.
Albertsons LLC, which operates 217 stores in seven Western and Southern states, will eliminate all self-checkout lanes in the 100 stores that have them and will replace them with standard or express lanes, a spokeswoman said.
"We just want the opportunity to talk to customers more," Albertsons spokeswoman Christine Wilcox said. "That's the driving motivation."
Wilcox said the replacement of automated checkout lanes with human-operated lanes likely would mean more hours available for employees to work.
Must call BULLSHIT on the "want to talk to customers more". Nobody does. Not even the customers!
Labor is cheaper than the machines. That's all there is to it.
Sounds like a depression to me!
Albertsons LLC, which operates 217 stores in seven Western and Southern states, will eliminate all self-checkout lanes in the 100 stores that have them and will replace them with standard or express lanes, a spokeswoman said.
"We just want the opportunity to talk to customers more," Albertsons spokeswoman Christine Wilcox said. "That's the driving motivation."
Wilcox said the replacement of automated checkout lanes with human-operated lanes likely would mean more hours available for employees to work.
Must call BULLSHIT on the "want to talk to customers more". Nobody does. Not even the customers!
Labor is cheaper than the machines. That's all there is to it.
Sounds like a depression to me!
Saturday, July 02, 2011
SNAP
44,647,861 on food stamps. (Source.)
Sorry, it's not called food stamps any more. It's the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.
You can get US population monthly estimates here. 2011 data was interpolated.
That's 14.3%. One in seven!!!
Nothing to see here folks, move along. It's not a depression.
SNAP!!!
Sorry, it's not called food stamps any more. It's the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program.
You can get US population monthly estimates here. 2011 data was interpolated.
That's 14.3%. One in seven!!!
Nothing to see here folks, move along. It's not a depression.
SNAP!!!
Saturday, May 28, 2011
What a Difference a Year Makes!
From HeraldNet a year ago: Snohomish County Business Journal Executive of the Year.
In today's chaotic banking world, where crashing waves of economic change have swept away dozens of famous-name banks and restructured much of the nation's financial community, First Heritage Bank is stabilizing and creating a positive new image as “The Greatest Small Business Bank.”From TheStreet.com: Washington Bank Fails; 2011 Tally Now 44.
With $215 million in assets in September 2009, the bank noted that more than 90 percent of its $174.6 million loan portfolio was in real estate. The bank lost $5.9 million in the first nine months of 2009, compared to a profit of $992,000 in the same period in 2008.
First Heritage Bank's President and CEO, Cathy Reines, has loved banks — particularly community banks — for many years, and it shows.
State regulators Friday shut down First Heritage Bank of Snohomish, Wash., bringing this year's total number of U.S. bank failures to 43.Rock on, Cathy! Your "love" of banking is shining through and through!!!
The Washington State Department of Financial institutions took over First Heritage Bank and then appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. receiver. The FDIC then sold all of the failed bank's deposits (approximately $163.3 million) for a 0.75% premium to Columbia State Bank of Tacoma, Wash. Columbia State Bank also agreed to assume the failed bank's assets, which total roughly $173.5 million.
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Saturday, March 05, 2011
Bubble Watch
There's a new bubble in town - agricultural property.
Prime agricultural land in the US is going for $10K per acre.
Do the math. After all the equipment, seeds, fertilizer, at current yields, and current prices, you're not going to make up that up in 100 years.
And before you scream "inflation", please note that the afore-mentioned "inflation" affects equipment (metals, energy, manpower), seeds, and fertilizer (energy) at the same rate. There is no "magic" here that allows you to get out.
Also, there's a super-secret, sizzling sauce that is gonna crush the above with deflationary forces. (Hint: it's called Africa.)
GAH! This is getting boringly predictable.
Prime agricultural land in the US is going for $10K per acre.
Do the math. After all the equipment, seeds, fertilizer, at current yields, and current prices, you're not going to make up that up in 100 years.
And before you scream "inflation", please note that the afore-mentioned "inflation" affects equipment (metals, energy, manpower), seeds, and fertilizer (energy) at the same rate. There is no "magic" here that allows you to get out.
Also, there's a super-secret, sizzling sauce that is gonna crush the above with deflationary forces. (Hint: it's called Africa.)
GAH! This is getting boringly predictable.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
On the Poor Use of Statistics
Newsmax.com reports: FBI: 100 Percent Chance of WMD Attack.
The probability that the U.S. will be hit with a weapons of mass destruction attack at some point is 100 percent, Dr. Vahid Majidi, the FBI’s assistant director in charge of the FBI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Directorate, tells Newsmax.
Sorry, this is bollocky pseudo-science amd bogus statistics at its very best.
The probability that all us will be dead "at some point" is also 100%, and hence it's not a very interesting statistic.
What matters is what is the probability of you, the reader, dying within one year, five years, ten years, etc. is.
This is a totally lame effort to sound scientific when in fact there is absolutely no reasoning or science involved.
One should stick a fork in the eye of the bitch just on general principle. All he's doing is justifying his job at the taxpayer's expense.
Now, that you can be sure of has 100% probability!
The probability that the U.S. will be hit with a weapons of mass destruction attack at some point is 100 percent, Dr. Vahid Majidi, the FBI’s assistant director in charge of the FBI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Directorate, tells Newsmax.
Sorry, this is bollocky pseudo-science amd bogus statistics at its very best.
The probability that all us will be dead "at some point" is also 100%, and hence it's not a very interesting statistic.
What matters is what is the probability of you, the reader, dying within one year, five years, ten years, etc. is.
This is a totally lame effort to sound scientific when in fact there is absolutely no reasoning or science involved.
One should stick a fork in the eye of the bitch just on general principle. All he's doing is justifying his job at the taxpayer's expense.
Now, that you can be sure of has 100% probability!
Monday, November 22, 2010
The Law of Mechanical Theorems
Yeah, yeah, yeah, the Portuguese are gonna get raped quickly. We all know that.
What we want to know is who's gonna get mauled a year ahead of time.
Irish per capita debt: $550K
Dutch per capita debt: $226K
Expect a mauling same time next year!
BORINNNNNGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!
What we want to know is who's gonna get mauled a year ahead of time.
Irish per capita debt: $550K
Dutch per capita debt: $226K
Expect a mauling same time next year!
BORINNNNNGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!
Saturday, November 20, 2010
The Irish Curse
A year ago, we visited the Irish saga: link.
Here's the recap:
Get drunk!
About the only option you've had for millenia. You think you can beat that by borrowing a crapload of money?
Here's the recap:
IrelandWhat would the EE advise the Irish?
Population: 6.1 million
Debt: $1.8 trillion
That's trillion with a T. And the population is half of that of Mumbai.
Quick long division later, that's $448K for each man, woman and child.
That's a fuckload of Riverdance tickets they are going to have to sell. Or they could just institute a penny-tax per pint, and they'll pay it back in a year.
Get drunk!
About the only option you've had for millenia. You think you can beat that by borrowing a crapload of money?
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Octopussy
The OC Register reports: Attorney: Octuplet mom is considering welfare.
Nadya Suleman and her 14 children may be kicked out of their La Habra home, and Suleman is considering applying for welfare.
Haddadin, who holds the deed to Suleman's La Habra home, said he plans to start foreclosure proceedings Monday.
Haddadin said Suleman failed to make her $4,060 house payment Sept. 1.
Czech also said his client is considering welfare.
"We've discussed it," he said. "The last thing she wants to do is go on public aid. But she doesn't have any future income. A few things fell through for her."
When the news broke today that the mom of 14 was in trouble, Vivid Entertainment put out the word that it was offering her $500,000 to do an adult movie — "one scene for one hour," TMZ is reporting.
Let's see some Octopussy!!!
Nadya Suleman and her 14 children may be kicked out of their La Habra home, and Suleman is considering applying for welfare.
Haddadin, who holds the deed to Suleman's La Habra home, said he plans to start foreclosure proceedings Monday.
Haddadin said Suleman failed to make her $4,060 house payment Sept. 1.
Czech also said his client is considering welfare.
"We've discussed it," he said. "The last thing she wants to do is go on public aid. But she doesn't have any future income. A few things fell through for her."
When the news broke today that the mom of 14 was in trouble, Vivid Entertainment put out the word that it was offering her $500,000 to do an adult movie — "one scene for one hour," TMZ is reporting.
Let's see some Octopussy!!!
Thursday, June 17, 2010
In Which Blog Readers Mail in Total Awesomeness!
Blog Reader's comment: "Short Gucci!"The EE's response: "Surely, my dear, you mean PPR!"
Heck, just short the CAC-40 and be done with it. Why piss around?
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