Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Six Degrees of Madoff

From New York Magazine: Madoff’s Latest Victims: Kevin Bacon and Kyra Sedgwick.

The crap thing about being Kevin Bacon, it turns out, is that sometimes you find yourself six degrees from the wrong kind of guy. Such as, for instance, Bernie Madoff. We'd heard that along with Hollywood boldfacers Jeffrey Katzenberg and Steven Spielberg, Bacon and his wife, Kyra Sedgwick, lost money in Madoff's devastating $50 billion Ponzi scheme, and Bacon's rep, Allen Eichorn, confirmed it for us. "Unfortunately, your report is true," he wrote.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

The House of Dog

From the WSJ: In the Great American Bailout, Pet Doctors Hope to Flush Out Cash.

Mortgages are under water all over this town. But at the local pet hospital, there's a liquidity crisis of a different order. It isn't about solvency. It's about sewage.

Thanks to a class of human clientele that wouldn't dream of denying an MRI to a dog, the Metropolitan Veterinary Hospital is in good financial shape. It wants to put up an extension and grow. For a building permit, though, it has to run a pipe to a sewer line.

Except there is no sewer line, and no money to pay for one in any government budget. That's where the huge public-works economic stimulus being pondered in Washington comes in. Like many, many other projects, a sewer line that improves life for animals in Ohio stands as good a chance as any of being part of the program.

"Our expansion won't cost less than $1 million," he said. "And we're adding 20 jobs. But we can't do a thing until that sewer comes through. If I was Barack Obama, I'd write the check tomorrow."

Make it out for $300,000, Mr. President-elect.

Highway, airport, transit and wind-farm lobbies are all knocking out lists of backhoe-ready jobs. So is the sewer lobby. The National Association of Clean Water Agencies wants $64 million to remove grease in Columbus, Ga.; $1.2 million for screw pumps in Kankakee, Ill.; and $24 million for the Nasty Branch flow-controller in Asheville, N.C. The association's latest sewer tally adds up to $7.4 billion.

The longest list comes from the U.S. Conference of Mayors: 1,391 things to do costing $73.2 billion in 427 cities, including a new sidewalk on Elm Street in Kokomo, Ind., and an upgrade to the street lights on the Cottonwood Loop in Holladay, Utah.

Akron has a list, too, and Mayor Don Plusquellic was flipping through it in his cabinet room not long ago.

Akron had levied income tax in Copley since the mid-90s, in return for laying water and sewer lines worth $60 million. Before the backhoes reached the pet hospital, the money was gone. So the sludge-pump truck still comes twice a week.

The hospital today has 45 veterinarians associated with it, and 120 full-time staffers. It has operating theaters, a CAT scanner, an intensive-care unit, busy wards of single-occupancy cages. It has outgrown its space. The MRI is in a trailer out behind the cesspool; patients have to be chauffeured to it in a golf cart.

Two years ago, the vets who own the hospital bought the lot next door for $235,000 to build a new wing. Then word came that they had to get a sewer put in first.

Sick-pet traffic is off a bit now, but the vets still want to build. They're longing for a recession-borne solution. Bobbie Kenna, an oncology intern, raised the question with Bear, a Tibetan terrier who had come into her ward for treatment. "The stink will be gone," she said. "It'd be more pleasant for everybody, wouldn't it, Bear?"

Akron's public utilities manager, Mike McGlinchy, concurs. If he had the extra $300,000, he'd lay this pipe today. "The business case is fabulous," he says. "And a lot of dogs and cats will be grateful."


Pork-tastic!!!

Friday, December 26, 2008

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

The Ghost of Christmas Future

Dollar devaluation
Destruction of the EMU
Derivatives Meltdown
Depression

The Ghost of Christmas Present

Let us revisit the "theory" that printing enough money will solve the problem. This seems to be the preferred solution, and we need to see why it will fail.

The theoretical position is correct. Print enough money and you will boost the nominal price level enough, and the insolvency problem goes away.

Unfortunately, that's not how it works in practice.

Firstly, the Fed doesn't "print" money. What it does do is lower the price of money below the market rate which has an effect similar to but not the same as printing money. This is an exceedingly critical point, and I cannot emphasize it enough.

What that means is that it cannot control the channel in which this money will flow. It could flow into commodities, or it could flow into absurd Internet ventures, or it could flow into gold. They have no control over where it goes.

Everyone with me so far?

Now, where the money goes is a matter of psychology. No banker or trader in their right mind is going to throw money at a clearly collapsing asset (which is what housing currently is.) You'd have to be borderline retarded to do so,

The bankers are in it for the money. They don't give a crap about what economists or central banks desire.

In fact, you can see it in the headlines. Wells Fargo now wants 25% down in California. Whether the Fed likes it or not, this is tightened credit for housing (which means they are balking at loaning money for a collapsing asset.)

In fact it is precisely this reason that no bubble in history has ever failed to collapse, inflation or no inflation, central banks be damned!

Now in order to "cushion" housing prices, the money would have to flow into wages because the borrowers need to make their monthly payment. Anybody who believes that wages will increase in the presence of China and India online also believes in the Tooth Fairy.

Even assuming the Tooth Fairy actually shows up to town, the wages would have to go up right now not 12-18 months later because the borrowers need to make their monthly nut now not 12-18 months later.

Theoretical economists don't worry about time lags. etc. Wave the wand and double the money supply. Yeah, OK.

In what time frame, sir? And what will the borrowers be doing while you're waving the wand?

Finally, we come to the coup de grĂ¢ce. This is where micro trumps macro every single time.

The needs of an individual are clear. First air (which is free), then food and fuel (heating, getting to job.) Only after that do they need shelter, and clothing. Everything else may safely be classified as discretionary. (Note if you can't get to your job, you won't be making any money.)

Now, each household has a finite pot of money each month (and this pot will not be increasing as explained above.) If food and fuel costs increase, then the amount of money they can spend on the rest must go down. Since food and fuel are absolute necessities, there is less money left over for shelter. I leave it as any easy exercise to the reader to figure out what happens to home prices in that situation.

So while theoretically inflation solves the problem, it has absolutely no chance of doing so in practice. In fact, it is going to make house prices collapse faster i.e. it will actually have the perverse effect of doing the exact opposite of what is intended.

Put that in your pipes and smoke it, economists!

The Ghost of Christmas Past

In Miami, Ron Shuffield, president of Esslinger-Wooten-Maxwell Realtors, predicted that a limited supply of land coupled with demand from baby boomers and foreigners would prolong the boom indefinitely.

"South Florida," he said, "is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past."

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

The Boxer Rebellion

The Independent reports: Bank of China furious at Deutsche debt move.

Investors in bank debt are threatening to boycott lenders that follow Deutsche Bank in breaking an unwritten rule and failing to exercise a call option on subordinated debt.

In a co-ordinated action, angry bond investors are writing to bank treasurers and investor relations heads telling them that any failure to exercise a call option will be considered a breach of trust that could cause all the issuer's debt to be shunned.

Deutsche stunned the debt market last week by choosing not to redeem €1bn (£932m) of subordinated lower tier 2 bonds because to do so was cheaper than refinancing. But though the move saved Germany's biggest bank up to €150m, it caused fury among buyers of the debt who worked on the assumption that bonds would always be redeemed at their first call date.

Refusing to call the debt means that the hybrid notes effectively become longer term and more risky than the investor originally assumed. Deutsche's decision caused the entire subordinated debt class to be repriced last week.

Bank of China, a major buyer of bank debt, has gone further in its communication with issuers. The giant Chinese lender's Hong Kong operation has told banks that "any non-call by a given institution will result in that institution's debt (not just lower tier 2 but senior and tier 1 as well) being ineligible for future investment consideration".

Bank of China added that Deutsche Bank had also been removed from consideration as a counterparty for any credit derivative transaction in future.

Deutsche Bank will be hoping that other banks follow its lead, giving it safety in numbers. The wave of threats from investors is intended to stop others opting to join Deutsche, and is the most hard-line response yet to the breaking of the debt-market code.


Bring back the Society of Righteous and Harmonious Fists!

Cold Hands

The diseased New York Times reports: Head of Fund Invested in Madoff Said to Commit Suicide.

Rene-Thierry Magon de la Villehuchet, a founder of the hedge fund Access International Advisors, was found dead early Tuesday in his office in Manhattan, the French business daily La Tribune reported on its Web site, after losing as much as $1.4 billion that had been invested with Bernard L. Madoff, the money manager accused of running a $50 billion Ponzi scheme. Mr. de la Villehuchet, 65, committed suicide, La Tribune said, citing a someone close to Mr. de la Villehuchet.

Hot-diggity, this is getting better each day.

Don't Choke Laughin'

From Reuters: Madoff investor seeks relief from SEC: report.

An investor who lost nearly $2 million investing with Bernard Madoff has filed a claim against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) alleging the agency was negligent in failing to detect an alleged decades-long fraud, the Wall Street Journal said.

Phyllis Molchatsky, a 61-year-old retiree from Valley Cottage, New York, is seeking $1.7 million in damages from the agency, the paper said.

The claim is believed to be the first attempt by an investor to recover lost money from regulators, according to the paper.


Can we say throwing good money after bad?

That Decoupling Feeling...

From the Independent: Default by Kuwaiti investment house hits Gulf's reputation as financial hub.

The reputation of the Arabian Gulf as a financial hub was dealt a blow yesterday as Global Investment House (GIH), one of the region's biggest institutional investors, confirmed that it was unable to repay a $200m loan, and had appointed HSBC to renegotiate the deal, and its other debts, with international creditors.

Analysts had expected the Kuwaiti government to meet the obligation in order to save face in the international debt markets.

The credit ratings agency Standard & Poor's cut the group's rating to "speculative default" last week after previously judging the group's debt to be investment grade, or a solid investment choice.


Oil yah? We hardly knew ye.

Monday, December 22, 2008

It's a Light-Fingered Christmas

The venereal New York Times reports: As Economy Dips, Arrests for Shoplifting Soar.

Police departments across the country say that shoplifting arrests are 10 percent to 20 percent higher this year than last. The problem is probably even greater than arrest records indicate since shoplifters are often banned from stores rather than arrested.

“More people are desperate economically, retailers are operating with leaner staffs and police forces are cutting back or being told to deprioritize shoplifting calls,” said Paul Jones, the vice president of asset protection for the Retail Industry Leaders Association.

Compounding the problem, stores are more reluctant to stop suspicious customers because they fear scaring away much-needed business. And retailers are increasingly trying to save money by hiring seasonal workers who, security experts say, are themselves more likely to commit fraud or theft and are less practiced at catching shoplifters than full-time employees are.


Academia Schmackademia

US News reports: Tufts, Yeshiva, New York Law School, and Harvard Hurt by Madoff.

The Bernard Madoff story has clawed its way into college news, with Tufts, Yeshiva, and New York Law School funds tied to Ascot Partners, a Florida hedge fund with nearly all its $1.8 billion invested with Madoff.

Yeshiva is by far the worst off, reporting it likely lost $110 million of its endowment to the giant Ponzi scheme, which is about 8 percent of its assets.

Tufts has also reported it lost $20 million through Ascot Partners, and New York Law School reports similarly large losses. The loss is 2 percent of the university's endowment and officials say they are participating in the investigation and will attempt to recover the losses.

A number of Harvard Medical School researchers, meanwhile, have lost their grants, thanks to ties to Madoff's firm. All grants from the Florida-based Picower Foundation, which was funding millions in diabetes and medical research, were cut off after the foundation—which has a nearly $952 million portfolio—announced it would close its doors because of Madoff-related losses.


"Experience keeps a dear school but fools will learn in no other."

- Benjamin Franklin

The Big One Hits SF

From SFGate: S.F. office space rent drops 22%.

San Francisco office rents dropped 22 percent during the fourth quarter from the previous year, the largest decline in seven years, as the shrinking financial services industry flooded downtown with empty space.

The average price for Class A space in the Financial District sank to $41.34 per square foot in the fourth quarter, down from $53.14 a year ago, according to a preliminary report by brokerage firm Colliers International. It was the biggest drop since the fourth quarter of 2001, when rents declined 49 percent following the dot-com implosion and Sept. 11 attacks.


But SF is special. Prices go up forever. They are not making any more land. Buy now before you are priced out forever.

Death, Where is Thy Sting?

The Times, UK reports: HSBC banker found hanged in five-star hotel suite.

An HSBC banker has been found hanged at a five-star hotel, after apparently committing suicide.

Christen Schnor, 49, was found by a hotel worker hanging by a belt in the closet of his £500-a-night suite at the Jumeirah Carlton Tower hotel in Knightsbridge, West London. A note was found by his naked body.

The Onion Weighs In

From American's Finest News Source™, the Onion:

Friday, December 19, 2008

Les pommes frites

Yahoo! reports: Belgian government collapses over Fortis affair.

Belgium's government collapsed on Friday after a top court found signs that it had sought to sway a legal ruling on the future of stricken bank Fortis.

Leterme has been under pressure to quit over accusations that his office had sought to influence an appeal court ruling that last week froze the break-up of financial group Fortis.

Leterme has denied influencing the appeal court, although he acknowledged that one of his officials contacted the husband of one of the judges several times.

Fortis was carved up by the Dutch, Belgian and Luxembourg governments with France's BNP Paribas buying the Belgian operations after an 11.2 billion euro ($16.1 billion) cash injection failed to calm investor concerns over its health.

The row reignited speculation the 178-year-old country could break up.

Thursday, December 18, 2008

The Race Towards Zero (Update 1)

We first talked about it here.

QC Standards

What "quality" due-diligence looks like.

(Courtesy: Fairfield Greenwich Group.)

ROTFLMAO.