Saturday, July 21, 2007

The "Special" Manhattanites

From the toilet paper that prints anything, we have Should Co-op Boards Set ‘Floor Prices’?.

IT is an open secret in New York that some co-op boards have adopted what are known as “floor prices” — minimum sales prices for apartments in their buildings.

Oooh, this is gonna be bad.

Let's see how this works out. What happens if Bill Gates mandates a minimum price of $100 for Microsoft shares?

The market is currently valuing each share roughly around $31.

From the point of view of a seller, Bill Gates's theoretical strategy is great. They will advertise their shares for sale at $100. But the buyer would think, "why would I buy something at $100 when the price is roughly $31?"

Please note that the buyer doesn't need to know the exact price. Even if they guess that the price is "something between $25 and $50", they will not transact. Precision is not needed in this game.

Effectively, you will have no market at all to trade this stuff (or equivalently, the bid-ask spread would be enormous, and only greater fools would end up transacting.)

So, the only thing the co-ops are ensuring is that sellers are locked in. They will ride the market down into the crash without being able to get out. And that will just make a bad problem morph into a total clusterfuck.

Good luck, lemmings!

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