Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Boom Boom Pow

The Telegraph reports: 'Neighbour from hell' blew up his own home before bailiffs could evict him.

Donald Joyce, 58, was due to be removed from his two-bedroom bungalow in Cherry Hinton, Cambridge, by council bailiffs at 10.30am.

But at 9.45am several explosions obliterated the building, blasting off the roof, flattening a brick wall and launching a giant radio aerial across the cul-de-sac.

The whereabouts Mr Joyce, who is wheelchair-bound and partially sighted, are unknown. He has not been seen since the explosion.

Reality is Better than Statistics

From Reuters: Most housing indexes overstate downturn -analysts.

Most closely watched U.S. home price measures lack enough local data to truly reflect house values and are overstating the extent of price drops, executives at a real estate analytics firm said on Monday.

An index is merely an average. It can be badly constructed but otherwise it is exactly what it is - an average, and indicative of the tendency of a population even though it may not reflect the distribution.

Now, the real question is whether the RE analytics firm might actually have a self-interest in "boosting confidence".

Of course, one cannot expect the "superior brain trust" of the MSM to think through these things.

Negative Home Prices (or Pass the Ticking Tax Time Bomb)

The New York Times reports: Banks Starting to Walk Away on Foreclosures.

Mercy James thought she had lost her rental property here to foreclosure. A date for a sheriff’s sale had been set, and notices about the foreclosure process were piling up in her mailbox.

Ms. James had the tenants move out, and soon her white house at the corner of Thomas and Maple Streets fell into the hands of looters and vandals, and then, into disrepair. Dejected and broke, Ms. James said she salvaged but a lesson from her loss.

So imagine her surprise when the City of South Bend contacted her recently, demanding that she resume maintenance on the property. The sheriff’s sale had been canceled at the last minute, leaving the property title — and a world of trouble — in her name.

City officials and housing advocates here and in cities as varied as Buffalo, Kansas City, Mo., and Jacksonville, Fla., say they are seeing an unsettling development: Banks are quietly declining to take possession of properties at the end of the foreclosure process, most often because the cost of the ordeal — from legal fees to maintenance — exceeds the diminishing value of the real estate.


Without jobs in the region, the house is worthless. Who's going to pay the insurance, maintenance and property tax year after year?

So it shouldn't be a terrible surprise that the banks find it cheaper to just hand the house back to the mortgagee and say, "Your problem."

“I thought, ‘What kind of game is this?’ ” Ms. James, 41, said while picking at trash at the house, now so worthless the city plans to demolish it — another bill for which she will be liable.

Not a game that you seem to be very good at, daah-link!

Monday, March 30, 2009

Chicken Entrail Bailout

Queer Eye for the Banker Guy

"If we don't color-coordinate our ties, the Financial System will implode ..."

The Audacity of Dopes

From the Washington News Tribune: What you learn when big money goes away.

As a rookie broker at a mom-and-pop mortgage company in Federal Way, Rob Collins had a killer month writing loans in the frothy, frenzied 2005 housing market.

He made $37,000. So he took $5,000 in cash and his fiancée, Heidi, to Bellevue Square.

“I told her, ‘We’re not leaving here until we spend it all,’” Rob recalled this week.

They spent it all right. Heidi bought a pair of designer Richmond jeans, diamond stud earrings, and some odds and ends to supplement her wardrobe. Rob, always impeccably dressed, bought clothes too, including an Italian leather jacket.

Over the following 18 plentiful months, Rob bought a used BMW M3 high-performance sports car, upgraded to a better mortgage company, bought a Hilltop house in Tacoma with Heidi, then married her.

He thought life couldn’t get much better than that.

It didn’t.

Last June, Rob, 29, lost his job writing mortgages for U.S. Bank because he couldn’t write enough approved loans to reach the $1 million minimum his bosses set for him. He sold the M3 immediately and hasn’t owned a car since. He and Heidi, 26, have fallen four months behind paying Countrywide, which owns the loan on their home. Countrywide calls every day asking for its money.

By chance, on a trip to Starbucks in Federal Way last month, I found Collins sweeping the floor before his turn taking orders at the drive-through window. He rides the bus to and from work.

“Starbucks is a great place to work,” Rob said. “I make $8.65 an hour. But I’m up for a raise here shortly.”

And Heidi? She just took a third job. Rob calls the job “swimsuit model.” The wisp of a woman walks the edge of the boxing ring at the Tulalip Casino Resort in Marysville between rounds holding up a placard with the number of the next round.

How are you doing with all this? I asked her.

“Not well,” Heidi said. She choked up. She doesn’t like to talk about it much. The mental and emotional strain, at times, becomes unbearable.


This is just freakin' AWWWWSUMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!

BWAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Sunday, March 29, 2009

The Race to the Bottom

The Economist reports on: Sink or swim.

LIKE unwelcome guests who will not leave, 453 container ships, 11% of global capacity, now float outside the harbours of Hong Kong, Singapore and other South-East Asian ports. They are unwanted by their hosts as well as their customers. In recent days China has quietly let it be known that it wants to rid its territorial waters of these nautical squatters.

Only five years ago huge demand from China meant that all these ships, and more, were desperately needed. This had a dramatic impact first on shipping rates, and then on supply (see chart). Between the end of 2006 and July 2008, shipyards received enough commissions to double the world’s fleet. Now these new ships—more than 9,000 vessels—are taking to the water just as demand has collapsed. The world is awash with ships.

To see how the recent boom and bust has affected value, a Hong Kong broker cites a 150-tonne “Cape class” ship that sold in 2003 for $18.5m in the used market. Critical to the price was the prevailing charter rate, then $15,000 a day. By last summer this had risen to $175,000 a day, and an identical ship sold for $85m. Rates peaked shortly thereafter at $300,000. Today rates are back where they were in 2003. Rather than try to find a buyer for another identical ship, albeit one that needed repairs, the owner dumped it for $7m to be used as scrap.

Orders for new ships have, not surprisingly, collapsed and scrutiny has shifted from what can be bought to what can be cancelled: nothing, it turns out, without great effort. South Korea’s shipyards, the global leaders, have learnt from previous busts. They typically demand 20% up front, a further 60% during construction, and the final 20% payment upon delivery. Walk away and you lose a fortune.


Somebody actually learnt from the past?!?

WOW!!! That's quite a feat. Send out the Nobel committee!

Of course, that just means that somebody's bondholders or stockholders are going to be taking that bloodbath not the shipbuilders.

But the real point is that the world is awash in an absurd amount of excess capacity. It will be more than a decade before this stuff normalizes.

And that in case you didn't notice is also extraordinarily deflationary.

Friday, March 27, 2009

The Sexy Seven Sisters

Bloomberg reports: Jobless Rate Exceeds 10% in Three More U.S. States.

Nevada, North Carolina and Oregon last month joined the four other states that had previously climbed above 10 percent, according to Labor Department data released today in Washington. Michigan, at 12 percent, remained the state with the highest unemployment rate, followed by South Carolina at 11 percent and Oregon at 10.8. California and Rhode Island bring the total number of states to seven.

Whitey Whitey, Quite McTightey

The Financial Times reports: Brazil’s leader blames white people for crisis.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on Thursday blamed the global economic crisis on “white people with blue eyes” and said it was wrong that black and indigenous people should pay for white people’s mistakes.

This is so unbelievably stupid that it's not even worth writing a tirade about.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

That Decoupling Feeling

From Bloomberg: China Industrial Profits Fall First Time on Record.

Chinese industrial companies’ profits dropped for the first time on record as the global recession cut demand for exports from the world’s third-largest economy.

Net income sank 37.3 percent in the first two months of 2009 from a year earlier to 219.1 billion yuan ($32 billion), the statistics bureau said today. Profits expanded 16.5 percent in the same period last year. Records began in February 2007.


You know,if you had asked any 19th-century economist, they would've told you that the fate of borrower and borrowee hung in tandem.

Only in this absurd 21st-century did we come up with the equally absurd notion known as "decoupling".

Now that Brazorussia-Chindia have "decoupled", how's that working out for them, huh?

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Unicorn Stories for Everyone!

From the San Diego Union Tribune: Housing construction remains low in county.

Borre Winckel, chief executive of the San Diego County Building Industry Association, said building might improve by year's end if the economy improves, foreclosures drop and builders sell off their existing inventory.

That's a lot of "if's" big-boy!

If there was a unicorn, and if the unicorn were to fly, and if the unicorn were to crap candy out of its ass while flying then I too would be able to collect the candy raining from the sky.

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

From the AP: Home prices post 6.3 pct annual decline in January.

A government report says U.S. home prices fell 6.3 percent in January from the same month last year.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency says prices, on a seasonally adjusted basis, rose 1.7 percent from December to January.

Home sales included in January's data were weighted toward areas that haven't borne as much of the brunt of the housing recession, the agency says.


Oh good! We thought you might be trying to manipulate the data or something. But nooooooooooo!!! You just weighted the data towards areas that didn't fall as much. Of course, that would make the data particularly useful.

FAIL!!!

Monday, March 23, 2009

The Japanese Example

Bloomberg reports: Japan Home Prices Slump to 24-Year Low as Recession Deepens.

Japanese residential land prices fell to a 24-year low as job losses and wage cuts discouraged homebuyers, while tighter credit markets choked off funding for property developers.

Residential land prices fell 3.2 percent in 2008 to the lowest since 1984 and average commercial land prices dropped 4.7 percent to a three-year low, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism said today in a report. Overall property prices declined 3.5 percent, erasing two years of gains that followed a 15-year slump.


Well, hello there! America-of-the-future!

Saturday, March 21, 2009

The Florida Death Spiral

The AP reports: New condo loan rules could hurt distressed areas.

Money is already tight at The Wilshire Condominium, and new lending rules threaten to make life even more difficult for it and other condos around the country.

Arthur Barr, a board member of the Wilshire homeowners association, estimates 30 percent of the owners in the 378-unit building in North Miami Beach are behind on their fees. That makes it difficult to pay for things like elevator repairs and gardening.

Now, Fannie Mae — the biggest player in the mortgage market — wants to ensure that if it's backing a loan for a condominium, the building is in good shape. If the building is brand new, Fannie Mae wants to be certain there are enough owners to pay for maintenance and preserve the value of the property.

Under the new regulations, Fannie Mae will reject any mortgage for a condo buyer if more than 15 percent of the other owners are delinquent on their association fees. What's more, Fannie Mae will only guarantee mortgages in new or newly converted condo developments if 70 percent of the units are sold or under contract.


They're toasted. They have, what? A fourteen-year supply of condos assuming "normal" growth.

Ooh, Florida! Ooh, Florida!
How fucked are you, good Florida!

Haircuts in Florida!

From the News Press: North Fort Myers country club on the auction block.

The old Lochmoor Country Club in North Fort Myers will be auctioned April 14 on the courthouse steps for more than $94 million - the biggest foreclosure in Lee County history, according to local real estate experts

The auction won't bring close to the $94 million, which consists of $79.1 million in loans plus interest and fees, said Fort Myers real estate broker Ed Bonkowski, who handled the Sheraton's sale in 1990.

Essentially, he said, the property is "a nondescript golf course and the water views" for homes that could be built there.

It probably would go for about $7 million, Bonkowski said.


So it will be auctioned for $94M but is likely to go for $7M. Chances are that anyone who is paying even that much is taking a hell of a risk because it's a freakin' golf course. If there's something that is disposable in this climate, it's a golf membership even if you're a golf fanatic (you can always play by paying cash.)

$94M to $7M.

Now that's a real fuckin' haircut!

Friday, March 20, 2009

Hey there, Pizza Boy!

From ABC News: Down But Not Out: From Hedge Funds to Pizza Delivery.

For the first 45 years of Ken Karpman's life, everything was close to perfect.

He graduated from UCLA with a bachelor's degree and M.B.A., then got a high-paying job as an institutional equity sales trader. He married his dream girl, had two children and traveled the world on expensive vacations.

Over the span of Karpman's impressive 20-year career as a trader, he climbed the company ladder, reaching a salary of $750,000 a year.

Karpman was so confident in his good fortune and the strong economy that he left his job in 2005 to start his own hedge fund. To pay for the new business and their standard of living, Karpman quickly burned through $500,000 in savings and, like so many Americans, took a line of credit against his house.

After a lengthy and fruitless job search, the Karpmans were shocked to find themselves in financial dire straits, with zero savings, hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt and their home in foreclosure.

Desperate for quick cash, Karpman tried to find a job bartending but came up empty. Finally, he drove his Mercedes to Mike's Pizza & Deli Station in Clearwater and applied for a job. Mike Dodaro, the owner of the pizza shop, said he was shocked when he read his application but he offered him the job despite some reluctance to hire an over-qualified candidate.

Karpman's salary plummeted from six figures to $7.29 an hour -- plus tips -- but it's money that he's grateful to earn.

The Karpmans are now on food stamps and a tight budget.

As Karpman counts every penny he earns, he still hopes he can come back from the financial brink and reclaim a lifestyle he, like so many Americans, never imagined he could lose.

"I need a couple of wins," he said, "and I think that, hopefully, it'll mushroom up like it caved in."


And they still don't fuckin' get it! They think there will be another bubble to bail them out.

Captain of our fairy band,
Helena is here at hand,
And the youth, mistook by me,
Pleading for a lover's fee.
Shall we their fond pageant see?
Lord, what fools these mortals be!

The Ponzimonium Strikes Back!

Reuters reports: U.S. regulator probing "rampant Ponzimonium".

Hundreds of people in the United States are under investigation for financial scams, many involving Ponzi schemes, a U.S. regulator said, calling the phenomenon "rampant Ponzimonium."

While none are as mammoth as disgraced financier Bernard Madoff's $65 billion fraud, multimillion-dollar "mini Madoffs" are proliferating from New York to Hawaii, the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said.

So far this year, the agency has uncovered 19 Ponzi schemes, which depend on an influx of new capital instead of investment profits to pay existing investors.

That compares with just 13 for all of 2008.

Chilton called the problem "rampant Ponzimonium" and "Ponzipalooza" -- a play on the word "Lollapalooza," an American music festival featuring a long list of acts.


You didn't exactly expect the greatest Credit Orgy in World History to not end like this, did you?

Every bubble ends with the revelation of a massive number of frauds. It's how the game works.

California Failing!

From CBS Marketwatch: Lawmaker suggests San Quentin sale.

A California state senator is calling for San Quentin State Prison to be closed and the land auctioned to private developers.

State Sen. Jeff Denham, R-Merced, said the 158-year-old prison was built on what was once a remote peninsula on San Francisco Bay but the property is now surrounded by some of the most prized real estate in the region.

Denham, who has previously introduced legislation to sell the prison without success, estimated the property could sell for as much as $2 billion.


Now, we could go all nucular on the Senator's ass with fancy analysis and witty rhetoric but let's just stick to the basic numbers.

San Quentin is 432 acres.

Price = $2B/432 = $4.6M

That's what the developer would have to pay. So the houses would have to be much higher. The land is nice but not that nice. Plus, where are the incomes to support that?

And never mind all the cleanup costs, moving the inmates, building a new facility, etc., etc., etc.

See, senator, one quick long division shows the smoke you're blowing up everyone's ass.

Long division, the marvel of financial wizardry!

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Jingle, Jingle, it's Jingle Mail!

The Detroit News reports: Detroit councilman Kenyatta, candidate for mayor, defaults on mortgage.

Kwame Kenyatta, a city councilman and newly announced mayoral candidate, and his wife have handed the bank the keys to their North Rosedale Park house and walked away from the mortgage.

The councilman said the couple moved out in December and decided to default on their mortgage after unsuccessfully seeking a solution with a mortgage company. He said they considered selling the house at a loss and turning over the deed to the mortgage company in exchange for forgiving their debt. Kenyatta said the house goes up for a foreclosure sale in April.

Kenyatta and his wife walked away from a monthly tax, insurance and mortgage payment of $2,600, one year before the interest would jump to 11.625 percent from 6.625 percent and the payment would hit $3,600. Kenyatta said that even though his monthly payment has remained the same for years, he felt it made no sense to remain in a house whose value had plummeted to $100,000.


That whooshing sound, that's deflation!

Thursday, March 12, 2009

God Bless America!

US News & World Report reports: Half of Americans Are Two Paychecks Away from Hardship.

Without a steady paycheck, 50% of Americans say they could not meet their financial obligations for more than a month — and, of that, a disturbing 28% couldn’t support themselves for more than two weeks of unemployment.

(Source: US News & World Report.)