In Which the EE Explains Bayesian Priors ...

Reuters reports: U.S. private sector axes 742,000 jobs in March.

Private employers cut jobs by a record 742,000 in March versus a 706,000 revised cut in February that was originally reported at 697,000 jobs, said ADP, which has been carrying out the survey since 2001.

Economists had expected 655,000 private-sector job cuts in March in the ADP report, according to a recent Reuters poll.

These economists are total morons.

The base case Bayesian prior has to be last-month's estimate ("this month will look exactly like last month.") If you can't even beat this, you haven't a freakin' clue. (And we're not at an inflection so this criticism is perfectly justified.)

Even more shockingly, since this is the "consensus" which is like an "average" or a "central tendency", we can conclude that virtually ALL of these so-called economists have to have been wrong.

They should just use chicken entrails instead. Would be more honest.