From Yahoo! Finance: Research firm: Dubai home prices drop 41 pct in 1Q.
Home prices in the once red-hot Middle East boomtown of Dubai plunged 41 percent in the first three months of 2009 as the global economic slowdown raised concerns about job security and dried up financing, according to figures released Tuesday that suggest nearly two years of gains have evaporated.
That's just one quarter folks! - three months - not a year, not a few years, just three months.
Of course, the EE had explained the concept right here.
Dubai is toasted! Prices will fall a lot further.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Sunday, April 26, 2009
The Lien Gangrene Acts Meanly on the Has-Been!
The Houston Chronicle reports: The logjam in lending inflicts pain.
The office is at the end of a nondescript hallway in one of the countless midrise office buildings that dot the Greater Houston area.
No receptionist sits inside, but it’s a small enough operation that the sound of the door opening brings one of the principals to the front. Two others join us in the windowless conference room, where they begin discussing the crisis they face.
Their company develops, builds and manages real estate, especially multi-family properties, and they feel it slipping away. In recent weeks, three of their projects were thrown into default, even though they say they’ve been current on all payments and had a 50 percent equity stake in the deal.
Their lender called for a new appraisal, and because the appraised value fell, the loan was deemed under-collateralized. The bank declared them in default and has refused offers for a compromise, they say.
The frustration of area builders and developers indicates a bigger problem in commercial real estate. Almost $500 billion in loans is coming due this year nationally, but the decline in property values and the tighter lending practices mean there’s only enough capital available to refinance 10 percent of them, Fish said.
“Losses in the commercial real estate sector for the most part have yet to be realized,” Fish said. “This is going to be an extended period of time that it takes for de-leveraging, and de-leveraging is just about as ugly a process as there is.”
In the 1980s, a wrenching revaluation of Texas’ real estate market took seven years to complete, and it may take years for the local market to fully recover this time, too, he added.
So you mean that borrowing a crapload a money is not the path to riches?
Shit, kid, wish you could've said something earlier!
The office is at the end of a nondescript hallway in one of the countless midrise office buildings that dot the Greater Houston area.
No receptionist sits inside, but it’s a small enough operation that the sound of the door opening brings one of the principals to the front. Two others join us in the windowless conference room, where they begin discussing the crisis they face.
Their company develops, builds and manages real estate, especially multi-family properties, and they feel it slipping away. In recent weeks, three of their projects were thrown into default, even though they say they’ve been current on all payments and had a 50 percent equity stake in the deal.
Their lender called for a new appraisal, and because the appraised value fell, the loan was deemed under-collateralized. The bank declared them in default and has refused offers for a compromise, they say.
The frustration of area builders and developers indicates a bigger problem in commercial real estate. Almost $500 billion in loans is coming due this year nationally, but the decline in property values and the tighter lending practices mean there’s only enough capital available to refinance 10 percent of them, Fish said.
“Losses in the commercial real estate sector for the most part have yet to be realized,” Fish said. “This is going to be an extended period of time that it takes for de-leveraging, and de-leveraging is just about as ugly a process as there is.”
In the 1980s, a wrenching revaluation of Texas’ real estate market took seven years to complete, and it may take years for the local market to fully recover this time, too, he added.
So you mean that borrowing a crapload a money is not the path to riches?
Shit, kid, wish you could've said something earlier!
Thursday, April 23, 2009
The Education Bubble Collapses
Time reports: Cash-Strapped State Schools Being Forced to Privatize.
The cash-strapped state of Michigan is looking to save money any way it can, and some political leaders have suggested essentially privatizing the state's flagship university. While formally turning the school into a private university would be tricky — requiring legislative approval, a constitutional amendment, and the support of the university's Board of Regents — legislators have proposed eliminating the $327 million in funding that the state provides to the university each year. Making up the state's contribution, however, would require an endowment on the order of $16 billion, a nearly impossible task even in flush times.
Traditionally, state universities provided an affordable education for its residents by offering subsidized in-state tuition. For Lansing native Anneke Stadt, a sophomore nursing student, the $11,037 tuition is the main reason she's at the University of Michigan. Stadt says she looked into private schools like Hope College ($33,000 tuition) and Kalamazoo College ($38,000 tuition). "I couldn't really afford them, though," she explains, "so I hedged my bets with the public school."
The struggling economy is forcing even wealthy families to look for the best value for their tuition dollars. For just $5,000 more in tuition, an out-of-state student could forgo Michigan for New York University, the nation's largest private school with nearly double the number of faculty.
Are you freakin' kiddin' me? $160K to attend Kalamazoo College?!?
You're better off taking that money, running off to Mexico and blowing it all on hookers and weed.
You'd have to be completely and utterly insane to pay those prices to go to those colleges. You'll never be able to pay back the opportunity cost of capital ever!
Education is a good thing. This is hardly worth debating about.
However, it doesn't have infinite value. It has finite value in relation to the income that you are going to pull down on the basis of that education. This should also be obvious!
Not understanding this, these kids are totally screwed.
The cash-strapped state of Michigan is looking to save money any way it can, and some political leaders have suggested essentially privatizing the state's flagship university. While formally turning the school into a private university would be tricky — requiring legislative approval, a constitutional amendment, and the support of the university's Board of Regents — legislators have proposed eliminating the $327 million in funding that the state provides to the university each year. Making up the state's contribution, however, would require an endowment on the order of $16 billion, a nearly impossible task even in flush times.
Traditionally, state universities provided an affordable education for its residents by offering subsidized in-state tuition. For Lansing native Anneke Stadt, a sophomore nursing student, the $11,037 tuition is the main reason she's at the University of Michigan. Stadt says she looked into private schools like Hope College ($33,000 tuition) and Kalamazoo College ($38,000 tuition). "I couldn't really afford them, though," she explains, "so I hedged my bets with the public school."
The struggling economy is forcing even wealthy families to look for the best value for their tuition dollars. For just $5,000 more in tuition, an out-of-state student could forgo Michigan for New York University, the nation's largest private school with nearly double the number of faculty.
Are you freakin' kiddin' me? $160K to attend Kalamazoo College?!?
You're better off taking that money, running off to Mexico and blowing it all on hookers and weed.
You'd have to be completely and utterly insane to pay those prices to go to those colleges. You'll never be able to pay back the opportunity cost of capital ever!
Education is a good thing. This is hardly worth debating about.
However, it doesn't have infinite value. It has finite value in relation to the income that you are going to pull down on the basis of that education. This should also be obvious!
Not understanding this, these kids are totally screwed.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Stimulate Me, Baby!
Reuters reports: Global economic crisis hits German sex industry
BERLIN (Reuters) - It did not take long for the world financial crisis to affect the world's oldest profession in Germany.
In one of the few countries where prostitution is legal, and unusually transparent, the industry has responded with an economic stimulus package of its own: modern marketing tools, rebates and gimmicks to boost falling demand.
Some brothels have cut prices or added free promotions while others have introduced all-inclusive flat-rate fees. Free shuttle buses, discounts for seniors and taxi drivers, as well as "day passes" are among marketing strategies designed to keep business going.
"Times are tough for us too," said Karin Ahrens, who manages the "Yes, Sir" brothel in Hanover. She told Reuters revenue had dropped by 30 percent at her establishment while turnover had fallen by as much as 50 percent at other clubs.
"We're definitely feeling the crisis. Clients are being tight with their money. They're afraid. You can't charge for the extras any more and there is pressure to cut prices. Everyone wants a deal. Special promotions are essential these days."
It's time for a "stimulus" package!
BERLIN (Reuters) - It did not take long for the world financial crisis to affect the world's oldest profession in Germany.
In one of the few countries where prostitution is legal, and unusually transparent, the industry has responded with an economic stimulus package of its own: modern marketing tools, rebates and gimmicks to boost falling demand.
Some brothels have cut prices or added free promotions while others have introduced all-inclusive flat-rate fees. Free shuttle buses, discounts for seniors and taxi drivers, as well as "day passes" are among marketing strategies designed to keep business going.
"Times are tough for us too," said Karin Ahrens, who manages the "Yes, Sir" brothel in Hanover. She told Reuters revenue had dropped by 30 percent at her establishment while turnover had fallen by as much as 50 percent at other clubs.
"We're definitely feeling the crisis. Clients are being tight with their money. They're afraid. You can't charge for the extras any more and there is pressure to cut prices. Everyone wants a deal. Special promotions are essential these days."
It's time for a "stimulus" package!
Jump, Jump
The New York Times reports: Freddie Mac Executive Is Found Dead
David B. Kellermann, the acting chief financial officer of the troubled mortgage giant Freddie Mac, was found dead Wednesday morning at his home in Northern Virginia, the police said.
The executive apparently committed suicide by hanging himself, according to people with knowledge of the investigation.
Mood Music:
David B. Kellermann, the acting chief financial officer of the troubled mortgage giant Freddie Mac, was found dead Wednesday morning at his home in Northern Virginia, the police said.
The executive apparently committed suicide by hanging himself, according to people with knowledge of the investigation.
Mood Music:
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Earth to Planet Harvard, Earth to Planet Harvard ...
The New York Times has an article by Greg Mankiw: It May Be Time for the Fed to Go Negative.
Let’s start with the basics: What is the best way for an economy to escape a recession?
Until recently, most economists relied on monetary policy. Recessions result from an insufficient demand for goods and services — and so, the thinking goes, our central bank can remedy this deficiency by cutting interest rates. Lower interest rates encourage households and businesses to borrow and spend. More spending means more demand for goods and services, which leads to greater employment for workers to meet that demand.
The problem today, it seems, is that the Federal Reserve has done just about as much interest rate cutting as it can. Its target for the federal funds rate is about zero, so it has turned to other tools, such as buying longer-term debt securities, to get the economy going again. But the efficacy of those tools is uncertain, and there are risks associated with them.
The problem with negative interest rates, however, is quickly apparent: nobody would lend on those terms. Rather than giving your money to a borrower who promises a negative return, it would be better to stick the cash in your mattress. Because holding money promises a return of exactly zero, lenders cannot offer less.
Unless, that is, we figure out a way to make holding money less attractive.
Imagine that the Fed were to announce that, a year from today, it would pick a digit from zero to 9 out of a hat. All currency with a serial number ending in that digit would no longer be legal tender. Suddenly, the expected return to holding currency would become negative 10 percent.
That move would free the Fed to cut interest rates below zero. People would be delighted to lend money at negative 3 percent, since losing 3 percent is better than losing 10.
Of course, some people might decide that at those rates, they would rather spend the money — for example, by buying a new car. But because expanding aggregate demand is precisely the goal of the interest rate cut, such an incentive isn’t a flaw — it’s a benefit.
Or they could just move their money into commodities or gold or a foreign currency.
Did that thought occur to you, Professor?
The reason that zero is the lower bound for interest rates is because you can always hold "stuff" - non-perishables ideally, but even "suitable" perishables.
People in Romania hoarded cars during the post-communist regime because a depreciating car "appreciated" faster than inflation.
It's the same reason that the Chinese and Indians hoard land and gold. Completely non-productive land and completely non-productive gold - a totally asinine thing in any economic paradigm actually.
So you could just hold gold. Or silver. Or even a foreign currency that didn't have such an asinine policy.
If they outlaw holding gold, you can hold copper, or toilet paper. It simply doesn't matter as long as it is suitably non-perishable.
And then you go out and borrow with the rest of society at that negative rate, and stick it in more gold or more copper.
Isn't this freakin' obvious? Do you have to be a Warren Buffett to grasp this basic point?
And this man is a Professor at Harvard? Jeebus! No wonder we're screwed.
Let’s start with the basics: What is the best way for an economy to escape a recession?
Until recently, most economists relied on monetary policy. Recessions result from an insufficient demand for goods and services — and so, the thinking goes, our central bank can remedy this deficiency by cutting interest rates. Lower interest rates encourage households and businesses to borrow and spend. More spending means more demand for goods and services, which leads to greater employment for workers to meet that demand.
The problem today, it seems, is that the Federal Reserve has done just about as much interest rate cutting as it can. Its target for the federal funds rate is about zero, so it has turned to other tools, such as buying longer-term debt securities, to get the economy going again. But the efficacy of those tools is uncertain, and there are risks associated with them.
The problem with negative interest rates, however, is quickly apparent: nobody would lend on those terms. Rather than giving your money to a borrower who promises a negative return, it would be better to stick the cash in your mattress. Because holding money promises a return of exactly zero, lenders cannot offer less.
Unless, that is, we figure out a way to make holding money less attractive.
Imagine that the Fed were to announce that, a year from today, it would pick a digit from zero to 9 out of a hat. All currency with a serial number ending in that digit would no longer be legal tender. Suddenly, the expected return to holding currency would become negative 10 percent.
That move would free the Fed to cut interest rates below zero. People would be delighted to lend money at negative 3 percent, since losing 3 percent is better than losing 10.
Of course, some people might decide that at those rates, they would rather spend the money — for example, by buying a new car. But because expanding aggregate demand is precisely the goal of the interest rate cut, such an incentive isn’t a flaw — it’s a benefit.
Or they could just move their money into commodities or gold or a foreign currency.
Did that thought occur to you, Professor?
The reason that zero is the lower bound for interest rates is because you can always hold "stuff" - non-perishables ideally, but even "suitable" perishables.
People in Romania hoarded cars during the post-communist regime because a depreciating car "appreciated" faster than inflation.
It's the same reason that the Chinese and Indians hoard land and gold. Completely non-productive land and completely non-productive gold - a totally asinine thing in any economic paradigm actually.
So you could just hold gold. Or silver. Or even a foreign currency that didn't have such an asinine policy.
If they outlaw holding gold, you can hold copper, or toilet paper. It simply doesn't matter as long as it is suitably non-perishable.
And then you go out and borrow with the rest of society at that negative rate, and stick it in more gold or more copper.
Isn't this freakin' obvious? Do you have to be a Warren Buffett to grasp this basic point?
And this man is a Professor at Harvard? Jeebus! No wonder we're screwed.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Soundness and Correctness
The New York Times reports: General Growth Properties Files for Bankruptcy
General Growth Properties, one of the largest mall operators in the nation, filed for bankruptcy early Thursday morning in one of the biggest commercial real estate collapses in United States history.
Founded in 1954 and expanded through a series of acquisitions — topped by a $12.6 billion deal for the Rouse Company in 2004 — the company has a huge retail presence that has served as a barometer for the troubles bedeviling the American retail market.
“Our operational model is sound,” Thomas H. Nolan Jr., the company’s president and chief operating officer, said on a conference call early Thursday morning.
Clearly, so "sound" that you went bankrupt.
General Growth Properties, one of the largest mall operators in the nation, filed for bankruptcy early Thursday morning in one of the biggest commercial real estate collapses in United States history.
Founded in 1954 and expanded through a series of acquisitions — topped by a $12.6 billion deal for the Rouse Company in 2004 — the company has a huge retail presence that has served as a barometer for the troubles bedeviling the American retail market.
“Our operational model is sound,” Thomas H. Nolan Jr., the company’s president and chief operating officer, said on a conference call early Thursday morning.
Clearly, so "sound" that you went bankrupt.
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Boozie Ozzie
CBS Marketwatch reports: Australia's leading growth index falls to 26-year low.
A leading economic index for Australia fell in February to its weakest level in more than two decades, pointing to a possible heavy contraction for the nation's economy, according to data released Wednesday.
The headline month-on-month rate contracted 0.3% in February from January to an annualized rate of 5.1%.
Westpac now expects the Australian economy to contract by 1% in 2009 -- the first time it would do so since World War II, according to chief economist Bill Evans. But Westpac also predicted that will be the low point of the cycle.
So it's currently contracting at 5.1% (annualized) and you expect some "magic" to temper it to 1% over the rest of the year?
Care to share what this "magic" will be?
A leading economic index for Australia fell in February to its weakest level in more than two decades, pointing to a possible heavy contraction for the nation's economy, according to data released Wednesday.
The headline month-on-month rate contracted 0.3% in February from January to an annualized rate of 5.1%.
Westpac now expects the Australian economy to contract by 1% in 2009 -- the first time it would do so since World War II, according to chief economist Bill Evans. But Westpac also predicted that will be the low point of the cycle.
So it's currently contracting at 5.1% (annualized) and you expect some "magic" to temper it to 1% over the rest of the year?
Care to share what this "magic" will be?
Sing-a-poor?
Yahoo! reports: Singapore economy plummets 20 pct in first quarter.
Singapore's economy plummeted nearly 20 percent in the first quarter, its biggest contraction ever, flagging a miserable start to the year for other export-dependent Asian nations grappling with the worst global slump in decades.
The government now expects the economy to shrink between 6 percent and 9 percent this year from a previous forecast of a drop between 2 percent and 5 percent, the ministry said in a statement. The 2009 growth forecast has now been cut three times.
If you need to cut your forecast thrice in three months, your forecast is shit!
And you've already dropped 20% and your forecast is 9%? How exactly does that work?
FAIL.
Singapore's economy plummeted nearly 20 percent in the first quarter, its biggest contraction ever, flagging a miserable start to the year for other export-dependent Asian nations grappling with the worst global slump in decades.
The government now expects the economy to shrink between 6 percent and 9 percent this year from a previous forecast of a drop between 2 percent and 5 percent, the ministry said in a statement. The 2009 growth forecast has now been cut three times.
If you need to cut your forecast thrice in three months, your forecast is shit!
And you've already dropped 20% and your forecast is 9%? How exactly does that work?
FAIL.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
The "Charitable" Impulse
Tufts Daily reports: Tufts accepts 26 percent of pool, suspends need-blind admissions.
The Office of Undergraduate Admissions reported a 4 percent drop in applications this year but accepted 26 percent of applicants to the Class of 2013 -- down less than 1 percent from last year, the Daily learned yesterday, the date by which all applicants were notified of a decision.
The admissions office also stopped practicing a need-blind admissions policy toward the tail end of the process, a decision that affected five percent of applicants, Dean of Undergraduate Admissions Lee Coffin said.
So now that you can no longer pretend not to be a business, you aren't?
You need cash, you are selling a service, and you need to survive? SHOCKER!!!
The Office of Undergraduate Admissions reported a 4 percent drop in applications this year but accepted 26 percent of applicants to the Class of 2013 -- down less than 1 percent from last year, the Daily learned yesterday, the date by which all applicants were notified of a decision.
The admissions office also stopped practicing a need-blind admissions policy toward the tail end of the process, a decision that affected five percent of applicants, Dean of Undergraduate Admissions Lee Coffin said.
So now that you can no longer pretend not to be a business, you aren't?
You need cash, you are selling a service, and you need to survive? SHOCKER!!!
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
The Other Emerald City Shaketh (and it's not the Big One)
Reuters reports: San Francisco Office Rents Fall Most Since 2001
San Francisco office rents dropped 24 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the biggest decline since the dot-com crash in 2001, as the recession cut jobs and companies returned space to the market.
It's the beauty of rents. Either you got it or you don't got it. There's no fakin' it!
San Francisco office rents dropped 24 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the biggest decline since the dot-com crash in 2001, as the recession cut jobs and companies returned space to the market.
It's the beauty of rents. Either you got it or you don't got it. There's no fakin' it!
In Which We Plumb Yet Another "First"...
The New York Times reports: Muni Bonds May Face Downgrade.
Moody’s Investors Service assigned a negative outlook to the creditworthiness of all local governments in the United States, the agency said Tuesday, the first time it had ever issued such a blanket report on municipalities.
There do seem to be an awful lot of "first times" these days, don't they?
Moody’s Investors Service assigned a negative outlook to the creditworthiness of all local governments in the United States, the agency said Tuesday, the first time it had ever issued such a blanket report on municipalities.
There do seem to be an awful lot of "first times" these days, don't they?
Tuesday, April 07, 2009
The Gilded Cage
The AP reports: Hard-up Nicolas Cage sells German castle.
The global recession has forced Hollywood star Nicolas Cage to tighten his purse strings and sell his sumptuous castle in Bavaria in southern Germany, the actor told a magazine Tuesday.
Cage bought the 28-room Neidstein castle with 165 hectares (410 acres) of forest and gardens two years ago, reportedly paying 2.6 million dollars for the property, which dates back to the 16th century.
Perhaps this explains why he's in a whole buncha C-movies lately!
The global recession has forced Hollywood star Nicolas Cage to tighten his purse strings and sell his sumptuous castle in Bavaria in southern Germany, the actor told a magazine Tuesday.
Cage bought the 28-room Neidstein castle with 165 hectares (410 acres) of forest and gardens two years ago, reportedly paying 2.6 million dollars for the property, which dates back to the 16th century.
Perhaps this explains why he's in a whole buncha C-movies lately!
The Emerald City Shaketh
Bloomberg reports: Manhattan Office Rents Fall Most in Quarter Century.
Manhattan office rents fell the most in at least 25 years in the first quarter as financial companies slashed jobs and relinquished space in the U.S. recession.
Rents dropped 6 percent from the fourth quarter to $65.01 a square foot, commercial property broker Cushman & Wakefield Inc. said in a report today. The decline is the most in records dating back to 1984.
Rents are “falling faster than they did in the last two recessions,” Harbert said.
Firstly, any fool could've seen this. The optimistic cash-flow projections of the cheerleaders are going to get torpedoed.
Same for the home-pawners who plan to sit this out by "renting their place". Rents adjust very rapidly because you can either pay it or you can't. There's no "magical" place that rents can come from. Either you have the means or you don't.
Manhattan office rents fell the most in at least 25 years in the first quarter as financial companies slashed jobs and relinquished space in the U.S. recession.
Rents dropped 6 percent from the fourth quarter to $65.01 a square foot, commercial property broker Cushman & Wakefield Inc. said in a report today. The decline is the most in records dating back to 1984.
Rents are “falling faster than they did in the last two recessions,” Harbert said.
Firstly, any fool could've seen this. The optimistic cash-flow projections of the cheerleaders are going to get torpedoed.
Same for the home-pawners who plan to sit this out by "renting their place". Rents adjust very rapidly because you can either pay it or you can't. There's no "magical" place that rents can come from. Either you have the means or you don't.
In Which the Media Makes GD1 Comparisons Again
Bloomberg reports: Default Rate Surges to Highest Since Depression, Moody’s Says.
Thirty-five companies defaulted in March, the highest number in a single month since the Great Depression, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
The rate at which speculative-grade corporate borrowers worldwide failed to meet their obligations rose to 7 percent from 4.1 percent at the end of last year, Moody’s said in a report today. So far this year, 79 companies rated by Moody’s have defaulted, the New York-based ratings firm said.
Thirty-five companies defaulted in March, the highest number in a single month since the Great Depression, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
The rate at which speculative-grade corporate borrowers worldwide failed to meet their obligations rose to 7 percent from 4.1 percent at the end of last year, Moody’s said in a report today. So far this year, 79 companies rated by Moody’s have defaulted, the New York-based ratings firm said.
Friday, April 03, 2009
Thursday, April 02, 2009
The Green Revolution
Reuters reports: One in 10 Americans receiving food stamps.
A record 32.2 million people -- one in every 10 Americans -- received food stamps at latest count, the government said on Thursday, a reflection of the recession now in its 16th month.
A record 32.2 million people -- one in every 10 Americans -- received food stamps at latest count, the government said on Thursday, a reflection of the recession now in its 16th month.
Wednesday, April 01, 2009
In Which the EE Explains Bayesian Priors ...
Reuters reports: U.S. private sector axes 742,000 jobs in March.
Private employers cut jobs by a record 742,000 in March versus a 706,000 revised cut in February that was originally reported at 697,000 jobs, said ADP, which has been carrying out the survey since 2001.
Economists had expected 655,000 private-sector job cuts in March in the ADP report, according to a recent Reuters poll.
These economists are total morons.
The base case Bayesian prior has to be last-month's estimate ("this month will look exactly like last month.") If you can't even beat this, you haven't a freakin' clue. (And we're not at an inflection so this criticism is perfectly justified.)
Even more shockingly, since this is the "consensus" which is like an "average" or a "central tendency", we can conclude that virtually ALL of these so-called economists have to have been wrong.
They should just use chicken entrails instead. Would be more honest.
Private employers cut jobs by a record 742,000 in March versus a 706,000 revised cut in February that was originally reported at 697,000 jobs, said ADP, which has been carrying out the survey since 2001.
Economists had expected 655,000 private-sector job cuts in March in the ADP report, according to a recent Reuters poll.
These economists are total morons.
The base case Bayesian prior has to be last-month's estimate ("this month will look exactly like last month.") If you can't even beat this, you haven't a freakin' clue. (And we're not at an inflection so this criticism is perfectly justified.)
Even more shockingly, since this is the "consensus" which is like an "average" or a "central tendency", we can conclude that virtually ALL of these so-called economists have to have been wrong.
They should just use chicken entrails instead. Would be more honest.
Adrift
From the New York Times: Boats Too Costly to Keep Are Littering Coastlines.
Boat owners are abandoning ship.
They often sandpaper over the names and file off the registry numbers, doing their best to render the boats, and themselves, untraceable. Then they casually ditch the vessels in the middle of busy harbors, beach them at low tide on the banks of creeks or occasionally scuttle them outright.
The bad economy is creating a flotilla of forsaken boats. While there is no national census of abandoned boats, officials in coastal states are worried the problem will only grow worse as unemployment and financial stress continue to rise. Several states are even drafting laws against derelicts and say they are aggressively starting to pursue delinquent owners.
Some of those disposing of their boats are in the same bind as overstretched homeowners: they face steep payments on an asset that is diminishing in value and decide not to continue. They either default on the debt or take bolder measures.
Marina and maritime officials around the country say they believe, however, that most of the abandoned vessels cluttering their waters are fully paid for. They are expensive-to-maintain toys that have lost their appeal.
The owners cannot sell them, because the secondhand market is overwhelmed. They cannot afford to spend hundreds of dollars a month mooring and maintaining them. And they do not have the thousands of dollars required to properly dispose of them.
If you knew this ahead of time as "inevitable," pat yourself on the back!
Boat owners are abandoning ship.
They often sandpaper over the names and file off the registry numbers, doing their best to render the boats, and themselves, untraceable. Then they casually ditch the vessels in the middle of busy harbors, beach them at low tide on the banks of creeks or occasionally scuttle them outright.
The bad economy is creating a flotilla of forsaken boats. While there is no national census of abandoned boats, officials in coastal states are worried the problem will only grow worse as unemployment and financial stress continue to rise. Several states are even drafting laws against derelicts and say they are aggressively starting to pursue delinquent owners.
Some of those disposing of their boats are in the same bind as overstretched homeowners: they face steep payments on an asset that is diminishing in value and decide not to continue. They either default on the debt or take bolder measures.
Marina and maritime officials around the country say they believe, however, that most of the abandoned vessels cluttering their waters are fully paid for. They are expensive-to-maintain toys that have lost their appeal.
The owners cannot sell them, because the secondhand market is overwhelmed. They cannot afford to spend hundreds of dollars a month mooring and maintaining them. And they do not have the thousands of dollars required to properly dispose of them.
If you knew this ahead of time as "inevitable," pat yourself on the back!
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