Friday, January 30, 2009

The Global Pyramid Scheme

The Guardian pretty much gives away the whole plot: Global recession - where did all the money go?

It's a terrific interactive piece. The EE will tempt you (to read it all) with the best bits:



Lordy, Lordy!

From the Telegraph: Millionaire businessman shot his partner before killing himself.

Lord Howard Worthington, the former owner of a successful engineering firm, is thought to have shot 47-year-old Julie Rees at their £900,000 house before turning the gun on himself in fields behind the property.

Worthington, who bought his title around two years ago, is a former boss of EWS Manufacturing Ltd in Wolverhampton, where he worked until 2004. He is currently director of a building firm and, along with Miss Rees, ran a real estate agency. Both businesses were formed in 2007.


Real estate agency, eh, ol' chap?

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

The Deep South

From the Atlanta Journal: Atlanta condo sales fell 88% in second half of 2008.

Demand for condominiums in intown Atlanta has “evaporated,” with just 66 new units sold in the second half of 2008, according to Haddow & Co., a local real estate consulting firm that’s been studying the condo market since 1999.

That’s an 88 percent dropoff from the number of units sold in the first half of 2008. Just 645 new condos sold all of last year — 76 percent below the annual average of the previous eight years.


Those be some mighty impressive statistics, pardner!

Even Sherman didn't go through the South that fast!

Can I have a Cheerleader instead of the US Economy?

Cliff Diving

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

That Upside-Down Feeliing

The AP reports: LA Man Upset Over Job Kills Wife, 5 Kids, Himself.

A man fatally shot his wife, five young children and himself Tuesday after he faxed a note to a TV station claiming the couple had just been fired from their hospital jobs and together planned the killings as an escape for the whole family.

''Why leave our children in someone else's hands,'' Ervin Lupoe wrote in a letter posted late Tuesday on the KABC-TV Web site.

The station called police after receiving the fax, and a police dispatch center also received a call from a man who stated, ''I just returned home and my whole family's been shot.''

It was the fifth mass death of a Southern California family by murder or suicide in a year. Police urged those facing tough economic times to get help rather than resort to violence.


Aah, the joys of being a home-pawner! Enjoy them while you're alive!

The Complicated Principle of "Long Division"

The Journal Sentinel reports: City seeks $10 million from state to deal with foreclosures.

The City of Milwaukee has applied for $10 million from the state to help address foreclosures, according to Mayor Tom Barrett.

That money would be in addition to the $9.2 million the city has been notified it will receive from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

The $10 million would come from the state's $38 million federal allocation for addressing foreclosures.


$10M/200,000(-ish) = 50(-ish.)

50 houses? That pretty much sums it up.

WHOOOOP-DEE-DOODLE-DOO!!!

The Messiah™'s Ethical Rules (in practice)

Politico.com reports: Geithner enlists lobbyist as top aide.

Newly installed Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner issued new rules Tuesday restricting contacts with lobbyists – and then hired one to be his top aide.

Mark Patterson, a former advocate for Goldman Sachs, will serve as chief of staff to Geithner as the Treasury Department revamps the Wall Street bailout program that sent an infusion of cash to his former employer.

Last week, the White House announced the president had waived the ethics rules to clear the way for the nomination of William Lynn, a former Raytheon lobbyist, to be deputy defense secretary.


That was a quick fall from "ethics". LOL.

Nobody Expects the Art Liquidation

Bloomberg reports: Brandeis to Close Rose Art Museum as Endowment Slips

Brandeis University, anticipating a budget deficit of more than $10 million over five years, voted to close its art museum and sell a collection that includes pieces by Andy Warhol and Willem de Kooning.

The 49-year-old Rose Art Museum will close this year and seek buyers for about 6,000 pieces, Dennis Nealon, a spokesman for the Waltham, Massachusetts, school, said today. The collection was appraised at about $350 million in 2007 by the university, said Michael Rush, the museum’s director.

The private school has suffered investment losses, and spent other funds on a construction boom.

“It’s like a one-two-three punch: the economy tanks, they overbuilt at the peak of the market and their largest donor was hit dramatically by the Madoff scandal,” said Mark Williams, a Boston University senior lecturer who specializes in risk management and has studied Brandeis’s finances.

“These are extraordinary times,” Reinharz said in a letter yesterday to the Brandeis community. “We cannot control or fix the nation’s economic problems. We can only do what we have been entrusted to do -- act responsibly with the best interests of our students and their futures foremost in mind.”


Firstly, these are not "extraordinary" times. These are perfectly "ordinary" and "predictable" times. Just because, you failed to see the problem because of your instituitional bias means very little.

You gambled, you lost, you pay the price.

Secondly, education went through the same absurd "credit" cycle as everyone else. Pay gobs now, and forget about the true "total" cost. Now, you're getting whacked because you're simply not offering anything for the absurd amounts you charge. The students will not be showing up.

To be perfectly blunt, as a former academic, most education is fairly worthless. The most successful people aren't the smartest ones - it's the smartest ones who have NO debt. Even a cursory examination should be able to see the freakin' "obviousness" of this statement. (And that doesn't even count the fact that student debt is not dischargeable in bankruptcy!)

Finally, you are not going to get anywhere near the $350M appraised value in 2007. Peak prices have nothing to do with reality. You won't even be able to clear 60% of that value, if that.

Adios, losers!

Have Another Cosmo, Darling!

Bloomberg reports: Cosmo, Accused of Ponzi Scheme, Raised $370 Million, U.S. Says.

Nicholas Cosmo, founder of Agape World Inc. in Hauppauge, New York, was charged with defrauding 1,500 investors of more than $370 million, U.S. authorities said.

Cosmo operated a Ponzi scheme at least between October 2003 and December 2008 that raised more than $370 million from more than 1,500 individual investors and deposited that money into Agape World bank accounts, according to a 51-page affidavit by U.S. Postal Inspector Richard Cinnamo detailing the allegations against Cosmo.

Cosmo, arrested after he surrendered yesterday in Hicksville, New York, claimed he was putting investors’ money into bridge loans to businesses, according to the Cinnamo affidavit, which was unsealed today. Just $746,000 of the money was found in the bank accounts last week, Cinnamo said. Less than $10 million was loaned out, the alleged business of Agape World.

Instead, more than $100 million was invested in commodity futures trading accounts, with losses of about $80 million, according to Cinnamo.


Looks like there was "a gap" between illusion and reality.

Philosophers might argue that their agapē for money left their bank balances agape.

¡Viva México!

The LA Times reports: Mexico City opens the 1st of 300 planned soup kitchens.

With her modest earnings as a seamstress and her grown children out of work, Esperanza Jose is like thousands of Mexicans finding it harder to make ends meet. And so she decided to take advantage of the city government's new soup kitchen, the first of 300 planned by March.

"The truth is that there are a lot of people that now don't have jobs, and so if they're offering this, we should make the most of it," said Jose, 63. "Many people are embarrassed to come; but, well, we come with dignity."

As Mexico slips into the profound economic crisis circling the globe, unemployment is rising along with food prices. Inflation is running about 8% annually, but some basic "family basket" items such as cooking oil and rice are going up about 200% a year, said Cesar Cravioto, head of the city's Institute of Social Assistance.

City officials hope to dish out 65,000 free or inexpensive meals a day at the soup kitchens, he said.

"The crisis is hitting hard, and it worries us a lot," Cravioto said, noting that the number of people who receive unemployment payouts is expected to double this year in this city of 19 million.


No word on whether the "gorditas" are being downsized or rightsized yet.

Crashing Hurricane, Hidden Costs

Bloomberg reports: State Farm Plans to Leave Florida Residential Market.

State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co., the largest home insurer in the U.S., plans to drop 1.2 million customers and withdraw from Florida’s residential market after a request for a rate increase was denied by state regulators.

The insurer cited risks from hurricanes and the rising costs of everyday claims from the state’s homeowners in an e-mailed statement today. The surplus from State Farm’s Florida unit fell by $201 million in the first three quarters of 2008, a period where no hurricanes hit the state.


That should provide cheer to the Florida market.

But always remember this gem, folks:

In Miami, Ron Shuffield, president of Esslinger-Wooten-Maxwell Realtors, predicted that a limited supply of land coupled with demand from baby boomers and foreigners would prolong the boom indefinitely.

"South Florida," he said, "is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past."

A Layoff by any other name...

TheStreet.com reports: IBM Shares Fall After Job-Cut Report.

IBM shares were falling Tuesday after a report that the company sent layoff notices to more than 2,800 people in its sales and software groups in the U.S. last week.

In an "Employee Information Package," copies of which were reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, IBM listed workers that were selected to take part in its "current resource reduction action" by age and job title, but without names.


Poor Saussure! Nobody "gets" him about the "arbitrariness of the signifier". Even after all these years.

Congratulations to all the "current resource reduction activated" people!

That Deflating Feeling

(Source: SIFMA.)

Monday, January 26, 2009

Having problems dealing?

From Detroit News: GM, Chrysler press dealers to order cars.

General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC on Sunday urged dealers to keep ordering new cars and trucks in coming months despite an industrywide sales slump that has kept vehicles piling up on dealer lots.

During a meeting at the National Automobile Dealers Association convention, Chrysler told dealers it will launch a major push to get retailers across the country to order vehicles, and consumers to buy them, ahead of a March 31 deadline to convince the government the automaker can survive.

Dealers seemed willing to respond to the call for more orders, but consumers are likely to remain skittish about big-ticket purchases like cars with the economy in a recession. "Nothing has changed for consumers," said Paul Melville, an industry expert with consulting firm Grant Thornton LLP. "Credit is still tight, consumers don't have cash and the fear factor is still in existence."

Wesley Lutz, owner of Extreme Dodge/Hyundai in Jackson, went into Sunday's session prepared not to order any new vehicles this month but changed his mind after listening to Press.

Lutz now plans to place an order Tuesday even though he already has more than a 100-day supply of vehicles on his lot.

Press made a straightforward pitch to convince Lutz to order more vehicles.

"He said, 'Do you want the Kool-Aid or do you want reality?' " Lutz said after the meeting. "He promised us we'd still be open for business in April. That's pretty powerful."


He has a 100-day inventory.

And he's buying more.

Man, these dealers are st00pid.

Any dealers dumb enough to keep buying vehicles in the Greater Depression deserve exactly what's coming to them, and no, there will be no TARP to bail them out.

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Keep a Stiff Upper Lip, Daah-link!

The Mail Online reports: Revealed: Day the banks were just three hours from collapse.

Britain was just three hours away from going bust last year after a secret run on the banks, one of Gordon Brown's Ministers has revealed.

City Minister Paul Myners disclosed that on Friday, October 10, the country was 'very close' to a complete banking collapse after 'major depositors' attempted to withdraw their money en masse.

The Mail on Sunday has been told that the Treasury was preparing for the banks to shut their doors to all customers, terminate electronic transfers and even block hole-in-the-wall cash withdrawals.

Only frantic behind-the-scenes efforts averted financial meltdown.

If the moves had failed, Mr Brown would have been forced to announce that the Government was nationalising the entire financial system and guaranteeing all deposits.

But 60-year-old Lord Myners was accused last night of being 'completely irresponsible' for admitting the scale of the crisis while the recession was still deepening and major institutions such as Barclays remain under intense pressure.


Well, that should inspire confidence in the Pound.

BWAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHHHHHHHH!!!

There's that D-word again!

From the Telegraph: Britain on the brink of an economic depression, say experts.

Families must brace themselves for a slump of far greater severity and longevity than the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s, they warned. They said the current crisis will be of a scale to rival the biggest peace-time crisis in modern history — the Great Depression.

The warning was delivered by economists and politicians after the Office for National Statistics revealed that the economy shrank by 1.5 per cent in the final three months of 2008 alone.

The contraction follows a 0.6 per cent fall in gross domestic product (GDP) — the most comprehensive measure of Britain’s wealth generation — during the previous three months. This means Britain fulfils the criteria for a technical recession — two successive quarters of negative output.

The news sent the pound sliding to its lowest level since 1985. Sterling dropped more than three quarters of a cent to $1.3688 as investors speculated that the Bank of England may be forced to cut interest rates towards zero in response to the recession.

Britain is likely to suffer more than other economies due to its heavy reliance on the financial services sector, which has all but imploded in the wake of the economic crisis, experts said.

Others raised the spectre of an outright economic depression, often defined by experts as a peak-to-trough economic contraction of 10 per cent. Aside from the demobilisation periods following the First and Second World Wars, this kind of contraction has never taken place — not even in the 1930s’ Great Depression.

Roger Bootle, the managing director of Capital Economics, said: "I think there’s a very good chance this recession will be the worst since the 1930s. I suspect the economy could shrink by 6 per cent from last year to the end of next year — and that might not be the end.

The plight facing Britain is uncannily similar to the 1930s, since prices of many assets —from shares to house prices — are falling at record rates, but the value of the debt against which they are held remains unchanged.

Albert Edwards, a strategist at Société Générale, likened the British economy to a Ponzi scheme — a fraudulent debt mountain like that allegedly used by the New York hedge fund manager Bernard Madoff.

“What I find amazing is that people aren’t really nailing Gordon Brown and [Bank of England Governor] Mervyn King for this,” he said. “At least in the US they had the excuse of the arrival of sub-prime — a new sector of the market. We didn’t really have anything similar but we ended up with a bigger national Ponzi scheme than the US.”

Friday, January 23, 2009

Spread it!

Will the Last Journalist Please Turn the Lights Out?

Reuters reports: Moody's cuts New York Times rating to junk.

Moody's Investors Service on Friday cut its ratings on The New York Times Co (NYT.N) into junk territory, saying declining advertising revenues will continue to pressure the newspaper publisher's earnings.

Moody's cut The New York Times three notches to "Ba3," three steps below investment grade, from "Baa3." The outlook is negative, indicating an additional downgrade may be likely over the next 12-to-18 months.


What took so long?

Were they gamahauching the boards' grandmothers? (Ed: You can't say that!)

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