Glen Creno reports for the Arizona Republic talks about how Builders regroup in Valley.
"It's the right decision," Williams said. "It's the moral thing to do. If we think we're overpriced, we have to adjust the price. Our buyers appreciated the fact that we knocked on their doors."
Oy!
Moral decision?!?
Hahahhahahahahha!!! Fuck, this is too precious.
How about you can't sell anything, and you're getting your ass reamed, and you need to give good ol' Glen handjobs so that he will print your bullshit in his local rag?
Saturday, July 15, 2006
Wednesday, July 12, 2006
Demand and Supply
From The Gazette in Colorado we have Rich Laden:
The increase in housing inventory might help push prices higher, said Marilyn Newell of the Platinum Group Realtors in the Springs and another Realtors Association board member.
More supply means prices go up?!?
Tha bitch be trippin'.
The increase in housing inventory might help push prices higher, said Marilyn Newell of the Platinum Group Realtors in the Springs and another Realtors Association board member.
More supply means prices go up?!?
Tha bitch be trippin'.
Friday, July 07, 2006
Oh, mama!
Now I know that's Katie Arcieri is only a "Staff Writer" (read: stay-at-home mom) at The Capital in Annapolis, MD but one wonders about journalistic integrity, and common sense, and logical coherence within the same article.
Read Home sales in the county fell 31 percent last month
Let's go over the premises of the article:
Firstly, as the headline says, sales dropped 31%.
Home prices dipped in Queen Anne's County. The median sale price for a home there was $329,000, a nearly 11 percent plummet from that month a year ago.
Home prices dropped 11%. She says so herself.
"Now we're moving into a more typical market and a sharp slowdown."
Typical market or sharp slowdown? Which one?
Pick a lane, bitch!
Or to rephrase...
Should I get my advertising revenues, or should I be a journalist?
Read Home sales in the county fell 31 percent last month
Let's go over the premises of the article:
Firstly, as the headline says, sales dropped 31%.
Home prices dipped in Queen Anne's County. The median sale price for a home there was $329,000, a nearly 11 percent plummet from that month a year ago.
Home prices dropped 11%. She says so herself.
"Now we're moving into a more typical market and a sharp slowdown."
Typical market or sharp slowdown? Which one?
Pick a lane, bitch!
Or to rephrase...
Should I get my advertising revenues, or should I be a journalist?
Speak, furious memory!
Another article featured in the New York Times, roughly nine months ago.
A total fucking retard called Jon Gertner wrote a cringe-inducing lead article in the Sunday magazine, Chasing Ground.
This is such a "me-give-you-blowjob-you-give-me-advertising-revenue" article that I'm going to have to stick to the "highlights".
Indeed , Toll seemed certain that firms like his—with an expertise at finding and developing land would become increasingly successful. The company expects to grow by 20 percent for the next two years and 15 percent annually after that.
Let me point out to readers that these are the same Toll brothers that have sold a 500+ million in stock over the last year. See for yourself at Yahoo! Finance.
Secondly, they have issued a stock buyback progam so that the company spends its excess cash buying back the shares while the insiders cash out. Yes, this is the closest that modern finance comes to legal piracy.
Did the journalist follow up on either? This is publicly available information.
I asked Toll what our children - my kids are both under 8, I told him - would be paying when they're ready to buy. "They're going to live with us until they're 40," Toll said matter-of-factly. "And when they have their second kid, then we'll finally kick them out and make them pay for the house that we paid for. And that house will cost them 45 to 50 percent of their income."
Does this journalist know how much land the US possesses in relation to its population? Hell, forget the US! Does he realize how much land Texas possesses in comparison to the entire US population?
(Answer: 295 million (US pop.) v/s 171 million acres (in Texas))
Yessirree bob! There's them half+ acre for each an' every man, woman, an' child there be in this fine country.
Obviously, not all of it is habitable, and we need land for other stuff (agriculture, industries) but I think my point should be absurdly obvious.
Further ass-wipery from one of the world's leading newspapers.
I grew alarmed. Was he kidding? He assured me he was not. "It's all just logic," Toll said. "In Britain you pay seven times your annual income for a home; in the U.S. you pay three and a half." The British get 330 square feet, per person, in their homes; in the U.S., we get 750 square feet. Not only does Toll say he believes the next generation of buyers will be paying twice as much of their annual incomes; in terms of space, he also seems to think they're going to get only half as much. "And that average, million-dollar insane home in the burbs? It's going to be $4 million."
Uhhhh, yes! The average will be 4 million dollar homes. And who exactly can afford that given that the median income is roughly $50K?
Let's see: 50K * 30 (most-common loan length) = 1.5 million.
That barely pays a third of that principal never mind the debt service.
How do these journalists get a paycheck?
A total fucking retard called Jon Gertner wrote a cringe-inducing lead article in the Sunday magazine, Chasing Ground.
This is such a "me-give-you-blowjob-you-give-me-advertising-revenue" article that I'm going to have to stick to the "highlights".
Indeed , Toll seemed certain that firms like his—with an expertise at finding and developing land would become increasingly successful. The company expects to grow by 20 percent for the next two years and 15 percent annually after that.
Let me point out to readers that these are the same Toll brothers that have sold a 500+ million in stock over the last year. See for yourself at Yahoo! Finance.
Secondly, they have issued a stock buyback progam so that the company spends its excess cash buying back the shares while the insiders cash out. Yes, this is the closest that modern finance comes to legal piracy.
Did the journalist follow up on either? This is publicly available information.
I asked Toll what our children - my kids are both under 8, I told him - would be paying when they're ready to buy. "They're going to live with us until they're 40," Toll said matter-of-factly. "And when they have their second kid, then we'll finally kick them out and make them pay for the house that we paid for. And that house will cost them 45 to 50 percent of their income."
Does this journalist know how much land the US possesses in relation to its population? Hell, forget the US! Does he realize how much land Texas possesses in comparison to the entire US population?
(Answer: 295 million (US pop.) v/s 171 million acres (in Texas))
Yessirree bob! There's them half+ acre for each an' every man, woman, an' child there be in this fine country.
Obviously, not all of it is habitable, and we need land for other stuff (agriculture, industries) but I think my point should be absurdly obvious.
Further ass-wipery from one of the world's leading newspapers.
I grew alarmed. Was he kidding? He assured me he was not. "It's all just logic," Toll said. "In Britain you pay seven times your annual income for a home; in the U.S. you pay three and a half." The British get 330 square feet, per person, in their homes; in the U.S., we get 750 square feet. Not only does Toll say he believes the next generation of buyers will be paying twice as much of their annual incomes; in terms of space, he also seems to think they're going to get only half as much. "And that average, million-dollar insane home in the burbs? It's going to be $4 million."
Uhhhh, yes! The average will be 4 million dollar homes. And who exactly can afford that given that the median income is roughly $50K?
Let's see: 50K * 30 (most-common loan length) = 1.5 million.
That barely pays a third of that principal never mind the debt service.
How do these journalists get a paycheck?
A Blast from the Past
I had bookmarked this article a long time ago when I had the original idea of writing this blog.
This woman (Motoko Rich) is the dumbest bitch ever to be writing for a major rag, The New York Times. Her spectacular dumbness sets new standards (at least the Times is excelling in something!)
I present from a little over a year ago : Speculators Seeing Gold in a Boom in the Prices for Homes
The couple hope to make up the shortfall when they sell the condo in a few years. "It seems that real estate always goes up," in the long term, Ms. Finley said.
Ummm, yeah.
A moment's investigation would point out that New York prices fell 40+% between '88 and '95.
Yo! bitch! Do some homework for a change, you f**king cow.
This woman (Motoko Rich) is the dumbest bitch ever to be writing for a major rag, The New York Times. Her spectacular dumbness sets new standards (at least the Times is excelling in something!)
I present from a little over a year ago : Speculators Seeing Gold in a Boom in the Prices for Homes
The couple hope to make up the shortfall when they sell the condo in a few years. "It seems that real estate always goes up," in the long term, Ms. Finley said.
Ummm, yeah.
A moment's investigation would point out that New York prices fell 40+% between '88 and '95.
Yo! bitch! Do some homework for a change, you f**king cow.
Speaking too soon, and selling too cheap!
A few minutes after I wrote about the absence of retardness, I found a gem. Admittedly, it's not from a journalist but it was on the Washington Post's "real estate board".
“I’m so mad at my neighbor. I bought my new home here in Ashburn last summer and plan to sell it next year (after holding two years to avoid taxes) to make a nice return on my investment. The problem is my neighbor is trying to sell his house (very similar to mine) right now and he keeps lowering his asking price.”
“Each time he lowers his price, I see my potential profits next year getting squashed. Doesn’t he realize he’s hurting the comps for all of his neighbors by doing this? I want to say something to him and tell him he should stop putting his interests ahead of his neighbors. What can I do to stop him?"
Sweetheart, there's nothing you can do. You're going to experience an epic ass-pounding!
(Economic Theory: Prices are set at the margin.)
“I’m so mad at my neighbor. I bought my new home here in Ashburn last summer and plan to sell it next year (after holding two years to avoid taxes) to make a nice return on my investment. The problem is my neighbor is trying to sell his house (very similar to mine) right now and he keeps lowering his asking price.”
“Each time he lowers his price, I see my potential profits next year getting squashed. Doesn’t he realize he’s hurting the comps for all of his neighbors by doing this? I want to say something to him and tell him he should stop putting his interests ahead of his neighbors. What can I do to stop him?"
Sweetheart, there's nothing you can do. You're going to experience an epic ass-pounding!
(Economic Theory: Prices are set at the margin.)
Econ 001.0 : Introduction
I've decided that since I'm throwing out economic terms willy-nilly, I would try and explain the salient parts of Economics, the way I conceive of them.
Consider this the stuff they don't teach you in Samuelson!
I hope to convince you that you can build a great edifice on very few assumptions (which are largely self-evident.)
Besides, it should be a welcome read when journalists don't say dumb-ass things (a rare occurrence but it does happen.)
Consider this the stuff they don't teach you in Samuelson!
I hope to convince you that you can build a great edifice on very few assumptions (which are largely self-evident.)
Besides, it should be a welcome read when journalists don't say dumb-ass things (a rare occurrence but it does happen.)
Where do I begin?
And from Denver, reporting for the Rocky Mountain News, we have John Rebchook in Home sale prices in June set new record
He (Broker Darrel Evangelista) said the record number of unsold homes on the market doesn’t trouble him because with the metro area’s growing population, he would expect the inventory number to increase. "I’m not concerned about a housing bubble or prices crashing like they did in the 1980s," he said.
"Ai! Ai!" wailed Badass, "A Dumbfook is come!"
Firstly, shouldn't the reporter ask why is he not concerned? As in, what is the reason that he is not concerned? Divine revelation, perhaps?
Secondly, if you have a growing population, why do you also have record inventory? Clearly, one of those doesn't make sense, and since the latter is data, it must be the former.
Thirdly, you can easily get population growth data. Did the reporter bother cross-checking the facts? It took me all of 30 seconds to type "Denver population growth" on Google.
Denver is growing (2.5%) but very slowly certainly not enough to offset the "record inventory growth". (US population growth is just a smidgen over 1%.)
Lastly, if you have a vast increase in supply but not demand, guess what that does to prices! Now go read the last sentence again.
He (Broker Darrel Evangelista) said the record number of unsold homes on the market doesn’t trouble him because with the metro area’s growing population, he would expect the inventory number to increase. "I’m not concerned about a housing bubble or prices crashing like they did in the 1980s," he said.
"Ai! Ai!" wailed Badass, "A Dumbfook is come!"
Firstly, shouldn't the reporter ask why is he not concerned? As in, what is the reason that he is not concerned? Divine revelation, perhaps?
Secondly, if you have a growing population, why do you also have record inventory? Clearly, one of those doesn't make sense, and since the latter is data, it must be the former.
Thirdly, you can easily get population growth data. Did the reporter bother cross-checking the facts? It took me all of 30 seconds to type "Denver population growth" on Google.
Denver is growing (2.5%) but very slowly certainly not enough to offset the "record inventory growth". (US population growth is just a smidgen over 1%.)
Lastly, if you have a vast increase in supply but not demand, guess what that does to prices! Now go read the last sentence again.
Lordy, lordy, lordy...
And from News 10 Now, a local New York TV station, we have Paul Messina reporting on: What's behind the rise in mortage rates?
“In 1982, 30-year fixed rates were 18.75 percent. Granted, real estate values weren't the same, but people were still buying at those times,” says mortgage broker Ellen Bitton of Park Avenue Mortgage.
Mortgage rates are still lower than they were five years ago. But why are they rising? Is it because of "the Fed" that we're always hearing about? Paul Messina will help to explain.
Bitton wants you to remember that even with the recent rise in mortgage rates, they are still lower than they were five years ago. But why are they rising? Is it because of "the Fed" that we're always hearing about?
Yeah, Paulie, please explain to us whether it's because of the "Fed" we're always hearing about.
And do you think Bitton who's getting paid on commission would actually have an incentive for people to buy houses inspite of higher rates? Or is she just blowing you under the table?
“In 1982, 30-year fixed rates were 18.75 percent. Granted, real estate values weren't the same, but people were still buying at those times,” says mortgage broker Ellen Bitton of Park Avenue Mortgage.
Mortgage rates are still lower than they were five years ago. But why are they rising? Is it because of "the Fed" that we're always hearing about? Paul Messina will help to explain.
Bitton wants you to remember that even with the recent rise in mortgage rates, they are still lower than they were five years ago. But why are they rising? Is it because of "the Fed" that we're always hearing about?
Yeah, Paulie, please explain to us whether it's because of the "Fed" we're always hearing about.
And do you think Bitton who's getting paid on commission would actually have an incentive for people to buy houses inspite of higher rates? Or is she just blowing you under the table?
Let's fire up the bullshit meter
This time from an anonymous release from BusinessWire: Inland Announces Developer's Plan for 26-Story Condo Tower in San Diego to Be Auctioned
"More and more, as the market changes, developers are seeking ways to share the risk and reward of significant developments in red-hot markets like San Diego and Chicago," said Frank Diliberto, president and CEO of Inland Real Estate Auctions, Inc.
Gee!
Somebody is willing to share the "rewards" of their labor with good ol' me? Where do I sign up?
I call bullshit. Nobody ever shares their "reward". They're just trying to dump unwanted inventory.
Journalists or real-estate shills? You decide.
"More and more, as the market changes, developers are seeking ways to share the risk and reward of significant developments in red-hot markets like San Diego and Chicago," said Frank Diliberto, president and CEO of Inland Real Estate Auctions, Inc.
Gee!
Somebody is willing to share the "rewards" of their labor with good ol' me? Where do I sign up?
I call bullshit. Nobody ever shares their "reward". They're just trying to dump unwanted inventory.
Journalists or real-estate shills? You decide.
Say something random, why dontcha?
This time from Gabriel Madway of Marketwatch, a Dow Jones product, we have: Brookfield: Second-quarter new orders fall 49%
The Fairfax, Va.-based company currently estimates 1,200 to 1,300 home closing in 2006, down 18% to 24% from 2005. Brookfield said the decline in new orders continues to be primarily in the San Diego/Riverside, Calif., areas and Washington D.C. markets. The decline results from an overall more competitive market environment as resale inventories increase and potential homebuyers take a wait-and-see approach, the company said. (ed: emphasis mine.)
Hmmm... let's see.
If the market were more "competitive", that would mean the same or more transactions going to one or more of your "competitors".
Presumably, the journalist meant more "challenging" but to understand this subtle distinction would be more than could be managed by the mentally-challenged.
The Fairfax, Va.-based company currently estimates 1,200 to 1,300 home closing in 2006, down 18% to 24% from 2005. Brookfield said the decline in new orders continues to be primarily in the San Diego/Riverside, Calif., areas and Washington D.C. markets. The decline results from an overall more competitive market environment as resale inventories increase and potential homebuyers take a wait-and-see approach, the company said. (ed: emphasis mine.)
Hmmm... let's see.
If the market were more "competitive", that would mean the same or more transactions going to one or more of your "competitors".
Presumably, the journalist meant more "challenging" but to understand this subtle distinction would be more than could be managed by the mentally-challenged.
Wednesday, July 05, 2006
The Illusion of Balanced Reporting
I'd like to write briefly about how journalists operate, and why their methodology fails in the world of economic reporting.
First off, journalists are, by and large, clueless about finance and economics. If you don't understand some domain of knowledge, you end up resorting to clichés, half-truths, and "received wisdom".
Secondly, they are trained to give one "for", and one "against" argument. This gives the superficial illusion of unbiasedness but it's not relevant to the truth. (Any journalists care to interview some "flat-landers"?)
Thirdly, they fail every single time to appreciate the self-interest of certain groups in interpreting the data. (In the words of Warren Buffett, "Never ask the barber if you need a haircut.")
Inevitably, you end up with such glorified nonsense that people think that economics is hard. (It isn't! You just have to ask some difficult, crucial questions, and do some math that can typically be done without even resorting to a piece of paper.)
First off, journalists are, by and large, clueless about finance and economics. If you don't understand some domain of knowledge, you end up resorting to clichés, half-truths, and "received wisdom".
Secondly, they are trained to give one "for", and one "against" argument. This gives the superficial illusion of unbiasedness but it's not relevant to the truth. (Any journalists care to interview some "flat-landers"?)
Thirdly, they fail every single time to appreciate the self-interest of certain groups in interpreting the data. (In the words of Warren Buffett, "Never ask the barber if you need a haircut.")
Inevitably, you end up with such glorified nonsense that people think that economics is hard. (It isn't! You just have to ask some difficult, crucial questions, and do some math that can typically be done without even resorting to a piece of paper.)
The "New Math"
And from Jerry Kronenberg, the genius boy-wonder of the Boston Herald, we have: It’s the lease you can do: Can’t sell a place? Consider renting it instead
“I can find a tenant to pay $1,500 a month for a one-bedroom Boston condo with my eyes closed,” said Ryle’s agent, John Ford of Ford Realty Inc. “If someone has a mortgage below $2,500 or even $3,500 a month, they can cover that through renting and move on with their lives.”
Yo! goober.
How does $1500 in rent cover a "$2500 or even $3500 a month" mortgage?
Negative cash flow? Not a problem! We'll "make it up in volume", I guess.
“I can find a tenant to pay $1,500 a month for a one-bedroom Boston condo with my eyes closed,” said Ryle’s agent, John Ford of Ford Realty Inc. “If someone has a mortgage below $2,500 or even $3,500 a month, they can cover that through renting and move on with their lives.”
Yo! goober.
How does $1500 in rent cover a "$2500 or even $3500 a month" mortgage?
Negative cash flow? Not a problem! We'll "make it up in volume", I guess.
Poached Eggs
From a leading national newspaper, USA Today comes the heartwarming story of a woman who has resorted to selling her eggs to make her mortgage payment.
Buyers in more markets find housing out of reach
Cortney Henderson is one of the faces of America's housing affordability crisis. She never could have qualified for a mortgage here — where the median home price is $607,000 — had she not had the $27,000 she made as an egg donor to use as "reserves" in her bank account.
Henderson, 31, who graduated last year with a Ph.D. in biomedical engineering and is now a researcher at the University of California, San Diego, still had to get a loan for the entire price of her $540,000 home. Without the $700 her boyfriend chips in each month, she could never cover the mortgage, insurance and property taxes, which still eat up almost 70% of her gross pay.
70% of gross?!? Have they lost their collective minds?
Do you really want this woman to be the mother of your child? And how did she get a Ph.D without knowing how to count?
Buyers in more markets find housing out of reach
Cortney Henderson is one of the faces of America's housing affordability crisis. She never could have qualified for a mortgage here — where the median home price is $607,000 — had she not had the $27,000 she made as an egg donor to use as "reserves" in her bank account.
Henderson, 31, who graduated last year with a Ph.D. in biomedical engineering and is now a researcher at the University of California, San Diego, still had to get a loan for the entire price of her $540,000 home. Without the $700 her boyfriend chips in each month, she could never cover the mortgage, insurance and property taxes, which still eat up almost 70% of her gross pay.
70% of gross?!? Have they lost their collective minds?
Do you really want this woman to be the mother of your child? And how did she get a Ph.D without knowing how to count?
Tuesday, July 04, 2006
The Three "F's" of Fiscal Responsibility
In regards to the last post, an "old school" Wall Street adage comes to mind:
"If it floats, flies, or fucks, rent it don't buy it!"
Apologies to everyone that this offends (in advance!)
"If it floats, flies, or fucks, rent it don't buy it!"
Apologies to everyone that this offends (in advance!)
Have Californians lost their freaking minds?
We inaugurate this blog with some spectacular stupidity, the kind that makes a grown man want to weep into the night.
The SFGate reports on Condos for sail : If you love the sea, these homes might float your boat
Excuse me? Has it not occurred to these "investors" that if there was profit to be made in these (pardon the giggles) "condos", then the company would've made that profit itself.
DUH!!!
I think these "investors" are going to be experiencing a sinking feeling real soon!
The SFGate reports on Condos for sail : If you love the sea, these homes might float your boat
Excuse me? Has it not occurred to these "investors" that if there was profit to be made in these (pardon the giggles) "condos", then the company would've made that profit itself.
DUH!!!
I think these "investors" are going to be experiencing a sinking feeling real soon!
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